OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen preview
In the fixture between OH Leuven and KV Mechelen, the probabilities suggest a 41% chance for OH Leuven to win, while KV Mechelen sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The analysis shows a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Recent form favors KV Mechelen, who have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, compared to OH Leuven's 2 wins and 3 draws. Despite this, head-to-head results indicate that neither team has won in their last 2 encounters, with 2 draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen: model vs market
| Source | OH Leuven | Draw | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on OH Leuven, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | 2.30 | 2.25 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.44 | -0.01 |
| KV Mechelen | 2.83 | 2.95 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (OH Leuven / KV Mechelen)
- 0.88 / 1.20
- Defence rating (OH Leuven / KV Mechelen)
- 0.97 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: OH Leuven goals. Columns: KV Mechelen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OH Leuven | 41% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| KV Mechelen | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (OH Leuven or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or KV Mechelen) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | OH Leuven win by 2+ | 19% | 5.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
OH Leuven and KV Mechelen recent form
OH Leuven
3W 3D 0L
KV Mechelen
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
OH Leuven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
KV Mechelen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: OH Leuven at home only, KV Mechelen away only.
OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: OH Leuven 0 · draws 2 · KV Mechelen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | OH Leuven | 2-2 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-10-25 | KV Mechelen | 1-1 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page 2026-11-07
- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge 2026-11-07
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht 2026-11-08
- Gent v Kortrijk — match page 2026-11-08
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- OH Leuven, previous: St. Truiden – OH Leuven, 2026-11-01
- KV Mechelen, previous: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen: odds and pick