St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem preview
St. Truiden has a 53% probability of winning against Zulte Waregem, who sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. St. Truiden's expected goals stand at 2.12 compared to Zulte Waregem's 1.54, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, St. Truiden's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches. Zulte Waregem, on the other hand, has lost five of their last six, which may influence the outcome. Both teams to score has a 70% probability, suggesting a potential for goals from both sides despite their recent struggles.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem: model vs market
| Source | St. Truiden | Draw | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 1.73 | 1.74 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.85 | -0.15 |
| Zulte Waregem | 4.10 | 4.12 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (St. Truiden / Zulte Waregem)
- 1.23 / 1.05
- Defence rating (St. Truiden / Zulte Waregem)
- 1.16 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Truiden goals. Columns: Zulte Waregem goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Zulte Waregem | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Truiden or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Zulte Waregem) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
St. Truiden and Zulte Waregem recent form
St. Truiden
3W 0D 3L
Zulte Waregem
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Truiden at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zulte Waregem away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Truiden at home only, Zulte Waregem away only.
St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: St. Truiden 2 · draws 0 · Zulte Waregem 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | St. Truiden | 3-2 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-08-23 | Zulte Waregem | 0-2 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge 2026-11-07
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- Gent v Kortrijk — match page 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- St. Truiden, previous: St. Truiden vs Brann prediction
- Zulte Waregem, previous: Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV: odds and pick