Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 11

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

· Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels· Referee B. Van Driessche

TipsterGrid prediction Union St. Gilloise to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union St. GilloiseDrawGenk
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.87.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Union St. Gilloise is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Union St. Gilloise1.65 Draw4.26 Genk5.10

Price as of

Expected return at 1.65: -1.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk preview

Union St. Gilloise holds a 60% probability to win against Genk, who sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance according to our model. Union St. Gilloise's expected goals stand at 2.15, significantly higher than Genk's 0.87.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a level of uncertainty. Genk has shown some resilience with a recent form of L-W-W-W-L-D, which could challenge Union St. Gilloise's dominance. Despite Union St. Gilloise's recent W-W-W-W-D-D form and head-to-head advantage with 2 wins from the last 2 encounters, the potential for an unexpected outcome remains.

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion St. GilloiseDrawGenk
Model66%21%13%
Market58%23%19%
Published60%22%18%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.60Now 1.60 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union St. Gilloise1.601.60+0.00
Draw4.154.05-0.10
Genk4.964.80-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.15Union St. Gilloise
0.87Genk
Total expected goals
3.02
Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Genk)
1.77 / 1.07
Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Genk)
0.64 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 3.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 9.6% 10.1% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.3% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.1% 7.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 7.1% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Genk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union St. Gilloise60%1.67
Draw22%4.46
Genk18%5.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Genk)40%2.49
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win by 2+43%2.34
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Union St. Gilloise and Genk recent form

Union St. Gilloise 4W 2D 0L
Genk 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union St. Gilloise at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Genk away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise at home only, Genk away only.

Union St. Gilloise vs Genk head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 2 · draws 0 · Genk 0.

Union St. GilloiseDrawsGenk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Union St. Gilloise2-1GenkJupiler Pro League
2025-09-21Genk1-2Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Union St. Gilloise to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Union St. Gilloise
Our pick: Union St. Gilloise to win 18+ Bet Now