KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi, the probabilities indicate a 33% chance for KVC Westerlo to win, while Charleroi holds a 42% probability. The expected goals suggest a close match, with KVC Westerlo at 1.95 and Charleroi at 2.22. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%.
KVC Westerlo's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 5 matches, but Charleroi has been strong as well, winning their last 5 games. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty. Both teams are expected to score, with a 77% probability, and there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 79%.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi: model vs market
| Source | KVC Westerlo | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 21% | 45% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charleroi, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | 2.82 | 2.81 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.60 | -0.01 |
| Charleroi | 2.26 | 2.27 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.17
- Attack rating (KVC Westerlo / Charleroi)
- 1.48 / 1.26
- Defence rating (KVC Westerlo / Charleroi)
- 1.39 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KVC Westerlo goals. Columns: Charleroi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KVC Westerlo | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Charleroi | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KVC Westerlo or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Charleroi) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KVC Westerlo and Charleroi recent form
KVC Westerlo
4W 1D 1L
Charleroi
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KVC Westerlo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Charleroi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KVC Westerlo at home only, Charleroi away only.
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KVC Westerlo 3 · draws 1 · Charleroi 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Charleroi | 0-1 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-05 | KVC Westerlo | 2-0 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-02-22 | KVC Westerlo | 2-1 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-11-08 | Charleroi | 2-0 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-05-09 | Charleroi | 4-3 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-04-11 | KVC Westerlo | 2-2 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-02-22 | KVC Westerlo | 1-3 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-11-09 | Charleroi | 1-0 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-03-01 | KVC Westerlo | 0-1 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-11-25 | Charleroi | 3-2 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- KVC Westerlo, previous: Anderlecht v KVC Westerlo analysis
- Charleroi, previous: Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière analysis