Updated

Jupiler Pro League · Matchday 9

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

· Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk· Referee B. Van Driessche

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Kortrijk to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KortrijkDrawKV Mechelen

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKortrijkDrawKV Mechelen
Model26%26%48%
Market41%27%32%
Published37%27%36%
Edge-4%0%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kortrijk, 36 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 2.41Now 2.31 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kortrijk2.412.31-0.10
Draw3.463.45-0.01
KV Mechelen2.702.90+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Kortrijk
1.72KV Mechelen
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Kortrijk / KV Mechelen)
0.68 / 1.09
Defence rating (Kortrijk / KV Mechelen)
1.25 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 8.1% 7.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1 5.3% 12.2% 9.6% 5.5% 3.5% 2 3.9% 6.7% 5.8% 3.3% 2.1% 3 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Kortrijk goals. Columns: KV Mechelen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kortrijk37%2.71
Draw27%3.72
KV Mechelen36%2.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.42
Double chance1X (Kortrijk or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or KV Mechelen)63%1.58
Handicap -1Kortrijk win by 2+11%9.16
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kortrijk and KV Mechelen recent form

Kortrijk 1W 2D 3L
KV Mechelen 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kortrijk at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.

KV Mechelen away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kortrijk at home only, KV Mechelen away only.

Expected lineups

Kortrijk lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 31 Marko Ilić
  2. 5 James Ndjeungoue
  3. 4 Harrison Murray-Campbell
  4. 21 Axel Drouhin
  5. 3 Matthew Anderson
  6. 70 Anthony Philips
  7. 19 Brecht Dejaegere
  8. 15 Mohamed Fofana
  9. 11 Shandre Campbell
  10. 68 Thierry Ambrose
  11. 10 Goduine Koyalipou

Bench: Patrik Sigurdur Gunnarsson, Nayel Mehssatou, Lenn De Smet, Rok Štorman, Jellert Van Landschoot, Gilles Ruyssen, Boris Lambert, Rudy Kohon, Sixtus Ogbuehi

KV Mechelen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Ortwin De Wolf
  2. 3 José Marsà
  3. 44 Mike Eerdhuijzen
  4. 20 Kobe Corbanie
  5. 7 Thérence Koudou
  6. 30 Marco Decherf
  7. 6 Fredrik Hammar
  8. 23 Simion Michez
  9. 9 Myron Van Brederode
  10. 19 Malcolm Lohunanu-Mbasi
  11. 14 Benito Raman

Bench: Luc Marijnissen, Gora Diouf, Bilal Bafdili, Nacho Miras, Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne, Halil Özdemir, Dennis Praet, Bill Antonio, Massimo Decoene

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Kortrijk 2 · draws 1 · KV Mechelen 7.

KortrijkDrawsKV Mechelen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-11-29Kortrijk3-1KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
2024-10-20KV Mechelen3-0KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2024-02-24KV Mechelen3-0KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2023-11-26Kortrijk0-3KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
2023-01-21KV Mechelen3-2KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2023-01-11Kortrijk0-1KV MechelenCup
2022-09-10Kortrijk1-4KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
2022-06-25Kortrijk3-1KV MechelenFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-02KV Mechelen3-2KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2021-08-27Kortrijk2-2KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match