Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière: model vs market
| Source | Charleroi | Draw | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charleroi, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 1.46 | 1.57 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 4.27 | 4.10 | -0.17 |
| RAAL La Louvière | 6.12 | 5.58 | -0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Charleroi / RAAL La Louvière)
- 1.03 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Charleroi / RAAL La Louvière)
- 0.77 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charleroi goals. Columns: RAAL La Louvière goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleroi | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charleroi or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or RAAL La Louvière) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleroi win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière recent form
Charleroi
4W 0D 2L
RAAL La Louvière
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charleroi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
RAAL La Louvière away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charleroi at home only, RAAL La Louvière away only.
Expected lineups
Charleroi lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 30 Mohamed Koné
- 2 Triston Rowe
- 95 Cheick Keita
- 4 Aiham Ousou
- 3 Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
- 18 Yassine Khalifi
- 6 Amine Boukamir
- 20 Freddy Mbemba
- 8 Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
- 14 Patrick Pflücke
- 21 Aurélien Scheidler
Bench: Martin Delavallée, Gaku Nawata, Isaac Ismaël Cissé, Boubakar Dembaga, Antoine Colassin, Noah Solheid, Mory Kera, Rafaël Teugels, Ahmed Mulumba
RAAL La Louvière lineup · 5-3-2
- 21 Marcos Hernán Peano
- 5 Thierry Lutonda
- 25 Djibril Lamego
- 22 Siad Gourville
- 4 Wagane Faye
- 3 Nolan Gillot
- 48 Ismaila Coulibaly
- 10 Mame Wade
- 29 Marius Courcoul
- 11 Mustapha Isah
- 30 Zsombor Gruber
Bench: Mátyás Kovács, Elias Filet, Patrick Nkoa, Quentin Benaets, Mehdi Boukamir, Anas Tajaouart, Léandro Rousseau, Théo Radelet, Yllan Okou
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Charleroi 0 · draws 1 · RAAL La Louvière 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Charleroi | 0-0 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-08-10 | RAAL La Louvière | 1-0 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page 2026-10-30
- KV Mechelen vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo 2026-10-31
- SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp 2026-11-01
- St. Truiden vs OH Leuven 2026-11-01
- Lommel United v Gent — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Charleroi, previous: Antwerp vs Charleroi prediction
- Charleroi, next: KVC Westerlo v Charleroi analysis
- RAAL La Louvière, previous: RAAL La Louvière vs Zulte Waregem: odds and pick
- RAAL La Louvière, next: RAAL La Louvière – Cercle Brugge, 2026-11-07