St. Truiden vs OH Leuven: model vs market
| Source | St. Truiden | Draw | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.24 | 4.18 | -0.06 |
| OH Leuven | 5.00 | 4.78 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (St. Truiden / OH Leuven)
- 1.32 / 0.84
- Defence rating (St. Truiden / OH Leuven)
- 1.12 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Truiden goals. Columns: OH Leuven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| OH Leuven | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Truiden or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or OH Leuven) | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
St. Truiden and OH Leuven recent form
St. Truiden
3W 0D 3L
OH Leuven
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Truiden at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
OH Leuven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Truiden at home only, OH Leuven away only.
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: St. Truiden 3 · draws 4 · OH Leuven 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | St. Truiden | 1-0 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-11-23 | OH Leuven | 1-2 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-03-16 | OH Leuven | 3-2 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-09-15 | St. Truiden | 2-1 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-05-17 | St. Truiden | 1-1 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-04-20 | OH Leuven | 1-0 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-12-09 | St. Truiden | 1-1 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-10-22 | OH Leuven | 4-0 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-01-28 | OH Leuven | 1-1 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-10-22 | St. Truiden | 0-0 | OH Leuven | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page 2026-10-30
- KV Mechelen vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo 2026-10-31
- SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp 2026-11-01
- Lommel United v Gent — match page 2026-11-01
- Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- St. Truiden, previous: Club Brugge KV – St. Truiden, 2026-10-25
- St. Truiden, next: St. Truiden vs Brann prediction
- OH Leuven, previous: OH Leuven vs Lommel United: odds and pick
- OH Leuven, next: OH Leuven – KV Mechelen, 2026-11-07