KV Mechelen vs Genk: model vs market
| Source | KV Mechelen | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
KV Mechelen vs Genk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Genk, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 3.75 | 3.65 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.69 | -0.02 |
| Genk | 1.93 | 1.90 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
KV Mechelen and Genk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (KV Mechelen / Genk)
- 1.13 / 1.21
- Defence rating (KV Mechelen / Genk)
- 1.32 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
KV Mechelen vs Genk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: KV Mechelen goals. Columns: Genk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
KV Mechelen vs Genk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for KV Mechelen vs Genk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KV Mechelen | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Genk | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (KV Mechelen or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Genk) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Genk win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
KV Mechelen and Genk recent form
KV Mechelen
2W 2D 2L
Genk
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KV Mechelen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Genk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: KV Mechelen at home only, Genk away only.
KV Mechelen vs Genk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: KV Mechelen 1 · draws 3 · Genk 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | KV Mechelen | 2-3 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-11-23 | Genk | 0-1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-01-18 | KV Mechelen | 1-2 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-09-28 | Genk | 2-1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-02-11 | KV Mechelen | 1-1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-10-22 | Genk | 4-0 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2023-02-17 | KV Mechelen | 2-2 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-10-28 | Genk | 3-1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-05-21 | KV Mechelen | 0-0 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-04-29 | Genk | 4-2 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV — match page 2026-10-30
- Standard Liege vs Kortrijk — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo 2026-10-31
- SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp 2026-11-01
- St. Truiden vs OH Leuven 2026-11-01
- Lommel United v Gent — match page 2026-11-01
- Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- KV Mechelen, previous: KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden: odds and pick
- KV Mechelen, next: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen: odds and pick
- Genk, previous: Genk – Standard Liege, 2026-10-25
- Genk, next: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk prediction