Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Blackburn vs Cardiff

· Ewood Park, Blackburn· Referee Tom Nield

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Cardiff to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BlackburnDrawCardiff

Blackburn vs Cardiff: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBlackburnDrawCardiff
Model41%25%34%
Market32%26%41%
Published35%26%40%
Edge+2%0%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Blackburn vs Cardiff odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cardiff, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.71Now 2.26 -0.45
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Blackburn2.362.90+0.54
Draw3.543.60+0.06
Cardiff2.712.26-0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Blackburn and Cardiff expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Blackburn
1.57Cardiff
Total expected goals
3.31
Attack rating (Blackburn / Cardiff)
1.07 / 1.18
Defence rating (Blackburn / Cardiff)
1.10 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Blackburn vs Cardiff score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 2.4% 1.3% 1 5.4% 11.0% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.7% 6.8% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.2% 5.0% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 4+ 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Blackburn goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Blackburn vs Cardiff goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Blackburn vs Cardiff

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Blackburn35%2.89
Draw26%3.87
Cardiff40%2.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.79
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.96
Double chance1X (Blackburn or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Cardiff)65%1.53
Handicap -1Cardiff win by 2+17%5.90
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Blackburn and Cardiff recent form

Blackburn 1W 2D 3L
Cardiff 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Blackburn at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

Cardiff away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Blackburn at home only, Cardiff away only.

Injuries & availability

Blackburn absences

  • A. Forshaw hip injury
  • A. Kargbo muscle injury
  • L. Miller achilles tendon injury
  • M. Jorgensen hamstring injury
  • M. Litherland muscle injury
  • S. Wharton achilles tendon injury
  • Y. Ohashi hamstring injury
  • Y. Ribeiro hamstring injury

Cardiff absences

  • C. Chambers knee injury
  • I. Davies muscle injury
  • K. Bielik suspended
  • R. Colwill health problems
  • W. Fish hernia

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Blackburn lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 22 B. Tóth
  2. 3 H. Pickering
  3. 15 S. McLoughlin
  4. 17 H. Carter
  5. 8 Sam Morsy
  6. 2 R. Alebiosu
  7. 21 O. Afolayan
  8. 31 Kristi Montgomery
  9. 10 T. Cantwell
  10. 25 R. Morishita
  11. 9 A. Guðjohnsen

Bench: A. Pears, Tom Atcheson, A. Kargbo, J. Fevrier, D. De Neve, M. Baradji, Gady Beyuku, J. Garrett, H. Pates

Cardiff lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Trott
  2. 3 J. Bagan
  3. 48 D. Lawlor
  4. 4 G. Osho
  5. 38 P. Ng
  6. 27 J. Colwill
  7. 18 A. Robertson
  8. 45 Cian Ashford
  9. 8 J. Moylan
  10. 11 O. Tanner
  11. 47 C. Robinson

Bench: W. Fish, D. Turnbull, C. Willock, C. Scanlon, H. Tyrer, I. Davies, P. Moreno, R. Kpakio

Blackburn vs Cardiff head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Blackburn 6 · draws 2 · Cardiff 2.

BlackburnDrawsCardiff
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-15Blackburn1-2CardiffChampionship
2024-11-09Cardiff1-3BlackburnChampionship
2024-02-20Cardiff0-0BlackburnChampionship
2023-10-21Blackburn1-0CardiffChampionship
2023-09-27Blackburn5-2CardiffLeague Cup
2023-01-01Blackburn1-0CardiffChampionship
2022-10-04Cardiff1-0BlackburnChampionship
2022-01-15Cardiff0-1BlackburnChampionship
2021-09-25Blackburn5-1CardiffChampionship
2021-04-10Cardiff2-2BlackburnChampionship

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match