Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

West Brom vs Birmingham

· The Hawthorns, West Bromwich· Referee Gavin Ward

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was West Brom to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
West BromDrawBirmingham

West Brom vs Birmingham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWest BromDrawBirmingham
Model48%27%25%
Market38%29%34%
Published40%28%31%
Edge+3%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.10.
  • The market prices West Brom below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

West Brom vs Birmingham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.24Now 2.50 +0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
West Brom2.242.50+0.26
Draw3.283.25-0.03
Birmingham3.102.80-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

West Brom and Birmingham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62West Brom
1.10Birmingham
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (West Brom / Birmingham)
0.99 / 1.11
Defence rating (West Brom / Birmingham)
0.82 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

West Brom vs Birmingham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 6.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1 9.5% 12.9% 6.4% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.5% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 3 4.7% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

West Brom vs Birmingham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for West Brom vs Birmingham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2West Brom40%2.48
Draw28%3.51
Birmingham31%3.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (West Brom or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Birmingham)60%1.67
Handicap -1West Brom win by 2+26%3.84
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

West Brom and Birmingham recent form

West Brom 2W 2D 2L
Birmingham 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

West Brom at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Birmingham away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Birmingham away only.

Injuries & availability

West Brom absences

  • C. Styles injury
  • M. Johnston broken leg
  • N. Galves knee injury

Birmingham absences

  • D. Gray muscle injury
  • M. Bird calf injury
  • M. Leonard achilles tendon injury
  • Paik Seung-Ho health problems
  • S. Wright off the roster
  • T. Gardner-Hickman hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

West Brom lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. O’Leary
  2. 4 C. Styles
  3. 2 C. Mepham
  4. 3 N. Phillips
  5. 18 B. Pereira
  6. 15 Tobias Christopher Collyer
  7. 7 F. Myhre
  8. 20 R. Nzingoula
  9. 17 O. Diakité
  10. 11 J. Morgan
  11. 19 A. Heggebø

Bench: G. Campbell, J. Molumby, B. Stewart, M. Ingram, I. Price, C. Townsend, T. Bany, Harry Whitwell, M. Crowther

Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Beadle
  2. 20 A. Cochrane
  3. 4 C. Klarer
  4. 5 P. Neumann
  5. 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
  6. 14 J. Solis
  7. 24 T. Iwata
  8. 17 L. Millar
  9. 28 J. Stansfield
  10. 7 Carlos Vicente
  11. 9 A. Priske

Bench: E. Laird, D. Gray, P. Roberts, M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, R. Allsop, D. Fry, L. Vázquez, M. Ducksch

West Brom vs Birmingham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: West Brom 3 · draws 2 · Birmingham 5.

West BromDrawsBirmingham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-10Birmingham0-0West BromEngland Championship
2025-11-26West Brom1-1BirminghamEngland Championship
2024-08-03Birmingham4-1West BromFriendlies Clubs
2024-02-03West Brom1-0BirminghamChampionship
2023-10-06Birmingham3-1West BromChampionship
2023-02-10Birmingham2-0West BromChampionship
2022-09-14West Brom2-3BirminghamChampionship
2022-04-03Birmingham1-0West BromChampionship
2021-10-15West Brom1-0BirminghamChampionship
2021-07-31Birmingham0-4West BromFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match