Charlton vs Bristol City: model vs market
| Source | Charlton | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Charlton vs Bristol City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bristol City, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 3.22 | 3.13 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Bristol City | 2.18 | 2.26 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charlton and Bristol City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Charlton / Bristol City)
- 0.79 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Charlton / Bristol City)
- 1.19 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlton vs Bristol City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlton goals. Columns: Bristol City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlton vs Bristol City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlton vs Bristol City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Bristol City | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlton or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol City) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win by 2+ | 20% | 5.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Charlton and Bristol City recent form
Charlton
1W 3D 2L
Bristol City
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlton at home only, Bristol City away only.
Injuries & availability
Charlton absences
-
B. Koumetio
muscle injury
-
C. Sichenje
knee injury
-
K. Ramsay
ankle injury
-
M. Godden
muscle injury
-
N. Chalobah
muscle injury
-
W. Mannion
shoulder injury
Bristol City absences
- L. Tolaj knock
- N. Eile illness
-
R. Dickie
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Charlton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 3 J. Edwards
- 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
- 5 L. Jones
- 20 D. McNamara
- 44 O. Skipp
- 6 C. Coventry
- 7 T. Campbell
- 33 Micah Mbick
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 11 M. Leaburn
Bench: K. Ramsay, H. Knibbs, S. Carey, A. Bell, I. Mesík, M. Alli, C. Kelman, W. Mannion, J. Rankin-Costello
Bristol City lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 S. Tickle
- 21 Rio Cardines
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 15 L. McNally
- 19 G. Tanner
- 4 A. Randell
- 12 J. Knight
- 10 S. Twine
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 23 D. Ballard
Bench: L. Eissat, C. Pring, S. Bell, T. Horvat, J. Wallace, S. Greenwood, G. Yah, B. Collins, E. Adebayo
Charlton vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Charlton 3 · draws 2 · Bristol City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Charlton | 1-2 | Bristol City | England Championship |
| 2025-08-16 | Bristol City | 0-0 | Charlton | England Championship |
| 2019-12-26 | Charlton | 3-2 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2019-10-23 | Bristol City | 2-1 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2016-02-06 | Charlton | 0-1 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2015-12-26 | Bristol City | 1-1 | Charlton | Championship |
| 2013-05-04 | Charlton | 4-1 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2012-11-11 | Bristol City | 0-2 | Charlton | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- West Ham vs QPR 2026-10-09
- West Brom v Birmingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Swansea vs Norwich — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Watford v Burnley — match page 2026-10-10
- Preston vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln 2026-10-10
- Blackburn v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-10
- Bolton vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Before and after this match
- Charlton, next: Burnley vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Bristol City, next: Bristol City – Blackburn, 2026-10-13