Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Preston vs Millwall

· Deepdale Stadium, Preston· Referee Ben Speedie

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Millwall to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PrestonDrawMillwall

Preston vs Millwall: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePrestonDrawMillwall
Model29%25%45%
Market32%28%40%
Published32%27%41%
Edge-1%-1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.38.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Preston vs Millwall odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Millwall, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.56Now 2.35 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Preston2.622.90+0.28
Draw3.303.36+0.06
Millwall2.562.35-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Preston and Millwall expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Preston
1.76Millwall
Total expected goals
3.15
Attack rating (Preston / Millwall)
0.84 / 1.07
Defence rating (Preston / Millwall)
1.37 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Preston vs Millwall score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 6.5% 6.7% 3.9% 2.6% 1 4.9% 11.5% 9.2% 5.4% 3.6% 2 4.1% 7.3% 6.4% 3.8% 2.5% 3 1.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 1.1% 4+ 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5%

Rows: Preston goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Preston vs Millwall goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Preston vs Millwall

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Preston32%3.17
Draw27%3.67
Millwall41%2.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.55
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Preston or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Millwall)68%1.46
Handicap -1Millwall win by 2+25%3.99
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Preston and Millwall recent form

Preston 1W 1D 4L
Millwall 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Preston at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Millwall away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Preston at home only, Millwall away only.

Injuries & availability

Preston absences

  • A. McCann hamstring injury
  • B. Potts ankle injury
  • T. Carroll ankle injury

Millwall absences

  • C. De Norre muscle injury
  • J. Coburn muscle injury
  • L. Jensen muscle injury
  • M. Ivanovic hamstring injury
  • M. Luongo knee injury
  • R. Leonard hamstring injury
  • T. Crama ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Preston lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 D. Iversen
  2. 3 A. Vukčević
  3. 16 A. Hughes
  4. 14 J. Storey
  5. 24 O. Offiah
  6. 7 A. Devine
  7. 15 J. Thompson
  8. 27 L. Leroy
  9. 4 H. Clarke
  10. 9 J. Erabi
  11. 10 C. Lang

Bench: Pol Valentín, L. Lindsay, T. Small, L. Gibbs, L. Nicholls, A. Moran, G. Gryba, D. Burgzorg

Millwall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 34 F. Marschall
  2. 3 Zak Norton Sturge
  3. 5 J. Cooper
  4. 6 C. Taylor
  5. 18 R. Leonard
  6. 14 Jenson Metcalfe
  7. 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
  8. 22 K. Lisbie
  9. 10 C. Neghli
  10. 7 T. Arconte
  11. 13 L. Dykes

Bench: J. Osei-Tutu, T. Crama, M. Crocombe, M. Sykes, D. Batth, L. Cundle, Z. Lovelace, Y. Issoufou, A. Doughty

Preston vs Millwall head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Preston 0 · draws 6 · Millwall 4.

PrestonDrawsMillwall
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28Preston0-2MillwallEngland Championship
2025-11-08Millwall1-1PrestonEngland Championship
2025-02-18Preston1-1MillwallChampionship
2024-09-28Millwall3-1PrestonChampionship
2024-01-27Millwall1-1PrestonChampionship
2023-10-21Preston1-1MillwallChampionship
2023-04-15Millwall2-0PrestonChampionship
2022-11-12Preston2-4MillwallChampionship
2022-04-15Preston1-1MillwallChampionship
2022-02-01Millwall0-0PrestonChampionship

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match