Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Bolton vs Stoke City

· Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich· Referee Thomas Kirk

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Stoke City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BoltonDrawStoke City

Bolton vs Stoke City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoltonDrawStoke City
Model39%25%37%
Market35%28%37%
Published36%27%37%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bolton vs Stoke City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.47Now 2.52 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bolton2.742.71-0.03
Draw3.283.31+0.03
Stoke City2.472.52+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bolton and Stoke City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Bolton
1.66Stoke City
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Bolton / Stoke City)
1.15 / 1.10
Defence rating (Bolton / Stoke City)
1.25 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bolton vs Stoke City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 4.7% 4.7% 2.6% 1.6% 1 4.9% 10.7% 8.1% 4.5% 2.7% 2 5.0% 8.3% 6.9% 3.8% 2.3% 3 2.9% 4.8% 4.0% 2.2% 1.3% 4+ 1.8% 3.0% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8%

Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bolton vs Stoke City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bolton vs Stoke City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bolton36%2.81
Draw27%3.65
Stoke City37%2.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.90
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (Bolton or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Stoke City)64%1.55
Handicap -1Stoke City win by 2+19%5.30
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bolton and Stoke City recent form

Bolton 2W 0D 4L
Stoke City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bolton at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Stoke City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Stoke City away only.

Injuries & availability

Bolton absences

  • C. Forino-Joseph groin injury
  • L. Brunt hamstring injury

Stoke City absences

  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • J. McGlynn inactive
  • S. Ingelsson muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 G. Bazunu
  2. 25 M. Conway
  3. 6 B. Davies
  4. 18 E. Toal
  5. 22 Gaizka Larrazabal
  6. 21 E. Erhahon
  7. 8 J. Sheehan
  8. 11 T. Gale
  9. 20 Ruben Rodrigues
  10. 7 K. Dong
  11. 10 S. Dalby

Bench: J. Bonham, X. Simons, L. Brunt, T. Bair, A. Famewo, S. Iling-Junior, A. Ito, J. Nelson, R. Hardie

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 40 M. Talovierov
  4. 16 B. Wilmot
  5. 17 E. Bocat
  6. 8 E. Galbraith
  7. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 7 J. McGlynn
  10. 11 L. Cissé
  11. 13 J. Devenny

Bench: B. Pearson, R. Boženík, Bae Jun-Ho, G. Hirst, B. Lawal, L. Bombino, J. Tchamadeu, J. Griffiths, M. Manhoef

Bolton vs Stoke City head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Bolton 2 · draws 2 · Stoke City 3.

BoltonDrawsStoke City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-07-30Bolton0-1Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
2018-12-29Bolton0-0Stoke CityChampionship
2018-10-02Stoke City2-0BoltonChampionship
2012-05-13Stoke City2-2BoltonPremier League
2011-11-06Bolton5-0Stoke CityPremier League
2011-01-15Stoke City2-0BoltonPremier League
2010-10-16Bolton2-1Stoke CityPremier League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match