Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Watford vs Burnley

· Vicarage Road, Watford· Referee Andrew Madley

Full time0 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Burnley to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WatfordDrawBurnley

Watford vs Burnley: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWatfordDrawBurnley
Model33%30%37%
Market34%27%39%
Published33%28%38%
Edge0%+1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Watford vs Burnley odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.49Now 2.41 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Watford2.702.81+0.11
Draw3.283.44+0.16
Burnley2.492.41-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Watford and Burnley expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Watford
1.24Burnley
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (Watford / Burnley)
0.66 / 0.79
Defence rating (Watford / Burnley)
1.30 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Watford vs Burnley score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 9.9% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 1 9.2% 14.3% 8.1% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.1% 7.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.4% 3.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Watford vs Burnley goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Watford vs Burnley

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Watford33%2.99
Draw28%3.56
Burnley38%2.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (Watford or draw)62%1.63
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Burnley)67%1.50
Handicap -1Burnley win by 2+17%6.04
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Watford and Burnley recent form

Watford 1W 1D 4L
Burnley 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Watford at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Burnley away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Watford at home only, Burnley away only.

Injuries & availability

Watford absences

  • E. Bove knee injury
  • J. Ngakia thigh injury
  • J. Zemura muscle injury
  • K. Baah knock
  • M. Bola hamstring injury
  • T. Akomeah lacking match fitness

Burnley absences

  • A. Barnes muscle injury
  • A. Ramsey hamstring injury
  • B. Humphreys muscle injury
  • D. Satpaev hamstring injury
  • E. Agyei muscle injury
  • H. Mejbri hamstring injury
  • J. Banel muscle injury
  • J. Beyer hamstring injury
  • J. Bruun Larsen inactive
  • J. Cullen knee injury
  • M. Obafemi inactive
  • M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
  • S. Sambo inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Watford lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Ravaglia
  2. 29 Branimir Mlačić
  3. 3 S. Coulibaly
  4. 6 M. Pollock
  5. 23 O. Traoré
  6. 5 H. Kyprianou
  7. 39 E. Kayembe
  8. 21 Amin Nabizada
  9. 17 Iker Bravo
  10. 20 M. Doumbia
  11. 9 L. Kjerrumgaard

Bench: K. Keben, O. Maamma, M. Boadu, R. Vata, M. Bola, M. Payero, D. Bachmann, J. Zemura, S. Mavididi

Burnley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 37 G. Coudert
  2. 23 Lucas Pires
  3. 44 Igor
  4. 15 A. Ahmedhodžić
  5. 2 K. Walker
  6. 3 Max Alleyne
  7. 29 J. Laurent
  8. 19 L. Ramazani
  9. 5 R. Hatate
  10. 7 J. Bruun Larsen
  11. 11 Z. Amdouni

Bench: M. Weiß, J. Vardy, M. Edwards, D. Satpaev, C. Roberts, A. Hountondji, H. Ekdal, O. Sonne, A. Broja

Watford vs Burnley head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Watford 2 · draws 3 · Burnley 5.

WatfordDrawsBurnley
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-18Watford1-2BurnleyChampionship
2024-12-21Burnley2-1WatfordChampionship
2023-02-14Burnley1-1WatfordChampionship
2022-08-12Watford1-0BurnleyChampionship
2022-04-30Watford1-2BurnleyPremier League
2022-02-05Burnley0-0WatfordPremier League
2020-06-25Burnley1-0WatfordPremier League
2019-11-23Watford0-3BurnleyPremier League
2019-01-19Watford0-0BurnleyPremier League
2018-08-19Burnley1-3WatfordPremier League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match