Updated

England Championship · Matchday 9

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

· Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough· Referee Farai Hallam

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Middlesbrough to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MiddlesbroughDrawWolverhampton Wanderers

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMiddlesbroughDrawWolverhampton Wanderers
Model36%26%38%
Market45%26%30%
Published43%26%32%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 41 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.08Now 2.12 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Middlesbrough2.082.12+0.04
Draw3.543.67+0.13
Wolverhampton Wanderers3.203.20+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Middlesbrough
1.59Wolverhampton Wanderers
Total expected goals
3.14
Attack rating (Middlesbrough / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
1.23 / 1.14
Defence rating (Middlesbrough / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
1.15 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 5.8% 5.4% 2.9% 1.6% 1 5.7% 11.7% 8.5% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.2% 8.3% 6.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3 2.7% 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 4+ 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Middlesbrough goals. Columns: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Middlesbrough43%2.35
Draw26%3.88
Wolverhampton Wanderers32%3.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (Middlesbrough or draw)68%1.46
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Wolverhampton Wanderers)57%1.74
Handicap -1Middlesbrough win by 2+18%5.48
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Middlesbrough and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form

Middlesbrough 2W 3D 1L
Wolverhampton Wanderers 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Middlesbrough at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

Wolverhampton Wanderers away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Middlesbrough at home only, Wolverhampton Wanderers away only.

Injuries & availability

Middlesbrough absences

  • A. Jones calf injury

Wolverhampton Wanderers absences

  • F. Lopez health problems
  • J. James health problems
  • R. Jimenez knee injury
  • Y. Mosquera ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Middlesbrough lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 R. Vítek
  2. 30 Neto Borges
  3. 29 A. Malanda
  4. 4 A. Phillips
  5. 2 C. Brittain
  6. 6 S. Berhalter
  7. 10 A. Morris
  8. 9 T. Conway
  9. 8 R. McGree
  10. 11 A. Cozier-Duberry
  11. 7 W. Lankshear

Bench: S. Byram, L. Ayling, M. Peart-Harris, J. Sarmiento, M. Arfsten, C. Barron, Leo Castledine, K. Joseph, S. Brynn

Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 José Sá
  2. 3 Hugo Bueno
  3. 24 Toti Gomes
  4. 34 N. Djiga
  5. 2 K. Trippier
  6. 5 M. Munetsi
  7. 20 T. Doyle
  8. 36 M. Mane
  9. 7 André
  10. 21 Rodrigo Gomes
  11. 10 A. Armstrong

Bench: J. James, João Virgínia, S. Neave, R. Saïd, J. Bellegarde, Fer López, G. Konan, L. Krejčí, J. Tchatchoua

Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Middlesbrough 5 · draws 0 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4.

MiddlesbroughDrawsWolverhampton Wanderers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2018-03-30Middlesbrough1-2Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2017-08-05Wolverhampton Wanderers1-0MiddlesbroughChampionship
2016-03-04Middlesbrough2-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2015-10-24Wolverhampton Wanderers1-3MiddlesbroughChampionship
2015-09-22Middlesbrough3-0Wolverhampton WanderersLeague Cup
2015-04-14Middlesbrough2-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2014-10-21Wolverhampton Wanderers2-0MiddlesbroughChampionship
2013-03-30Wolverhampton Wanderers3-2MiddlesbroughChampionship
2012-12-15Middlesbrough2-0Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match