Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven· Referee Joey Kooij

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was PSV Eindhoven to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PSV EindhovenDrawHeerenveen

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePSV EindhovenDrawHeerenveen
Model65%19%17%
Market71%16%14%
Published69%16%15%
Edge-1%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.32.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.22Now 1.33 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
PSV Eindhoven1.221.33+0.11
Draw6.476.08-0.40
Heerenveen9.706.75-2.95

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.63PSV Eindhoven
1.32Heerenveen
Total expected goals
3.95
Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Heerenveen)
1.72 / 0.97
Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Heerenveen)
0.91 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 1 4.4% 7.4% 4.4% 1.9% 0.9% 2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 3 5.8% 7.7% 5.1% 2.2% 1.0% 4+ 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2%

Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Heerenveen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2PSV Eindhoven69%1.45
Draw16%6.14
Heerenveen15%6.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.06
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.19
Double chance1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Heerenveen)31%3.23
Handicap -1PSV Eindhoven win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen recent form

PSV Eindhoven 4W 1D 1L
Heerenveen 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

PSV Eindhoven at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
3.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Heerenveen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Heerenveen away only.

Injuries & availability

PSV Eindhoven absences

  • A. Nagalo injury
  • A. Plea surgery
  • J. Schouten knee injury
  • K. Sildillia surgery
  • L. Geertruida knock
  • P. Wanner foot injury
  • R. Pepi injury
  • S. Lammers lacking match fitness
  • S. Ouaissa muscle injury

Heerenveen absences

  • D. Proper hamstring injury
  • M. Hilgers knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 M. Kovář
  2. 17 Mauro Júnior
  3. 4 A. Obispo
  4. 6 R. Flamingo
  5. 8 S. Dest
  6. 31 N. Fernandez
  7. 24 K. Sano
  8. 7 R. van Bommel
  9. 20 G. Til
  10. 19 E. Bajraktarevic
  11. 21 S. Mijnans

Bench: N. Olij, L. Geertruida, Yarek Gasiorowski, I. Perišić, F. Kostić, M. Hansen, D. Man, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, Khadim Ngom, S. Cornecion

Heerenveen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 B. Klaverboer
  2. 19 V. Zagaritis
  3. 3 M. Willemsen
  4. 4 S. Kersten
  5. 45 O. Braude
  6. 14 L. Smans
  7. 16 M. Linday
  8. 7 M. Rivera
  9. 36 N. Courtens
  10. 20 J. Trenskow
  11. 9 D. Vente

Bench: M. Hilgers, R. Meerveld, L. Oyen, M. Egbring, R. Uldriķis, M. Farji, D. Bladi, H. Petrov, L. Machine, T. Schreuder, J. Scholten, A. Noppert

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 8 · draws 1 · Heerenveen 1.

PSV EindhovenDrawsHeerenveen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21PSV Eindhoven3-1HeerenveenEredivisie
2026-02-04PSV Eindhoven4-1HeerenveenKNVB Beker
2025-12-06Heerenveen0-2PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2025-03-08PSV Eindhoven2-1HeerenveenEredivisie
2024-12-14Heerenveen1-0PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2024-04-25Heerenveen0-8PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2023-12-07PSV Eindhoven2-0HeerenveenEredivisie
2023-05-21PSV Eindhoven3-3HeerenveenEredivisie
2022-10-09Heerenveen0-1PSV EindhovenEredivisie
2022-02-20PSV Eindhoven3-1HeerenveenEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match