Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen

· Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam· Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Ajax to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AjaxDrawNEC Nijmegen

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAjaxDrawNEC Nijmegen
Model85%9%5%
Market71%16%13%
Published75%15%11%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.90 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ajax below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.48Now 1.32 -0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ajax1.481.32-0.16
Draw4.505.75+1.25
NEC Nijmegen5.587.50+1.92

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.90Ajax
1.08NEC Nijmegen
Total expected goals
4.98
Attack rating (Ajax / NEC Nijmegen)
1.73 / 0.78
Defence rating (Ajax / NEC Nijmegen)
0.93 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1 2.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2 5.2% 5.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 3 6.8% 7.4% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 18.5% 20.0% 10.8% 3.9% 1.3%

Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 87%
Over 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ajax75%1.34
Draw15%6.88
NEC Nijmegen11%9.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.587%1.15
Under 2.513%7.89
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Ajax or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)85%1.17
X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen)25%3.95
Handicap -1Ajax win by 2+72%1.40
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen recent form

Ajax 4W 1D 1L
NEC Nijmegen 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ajax at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.5 at home.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NEC Nijmegen away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.

Injuries & availability

Ajax absences

  • A. Bouwman knock
  • Caio Henrique injury
  • D. Blind back injury
  • K. Dolberg knee injury
  • S. Adingra foot injury

NEC Nijmegen absences

  • A. Kaplan knee injury
  • B. Nuytinck ankle injury
  • C. Bischoff hamstring injury
  • D. Fonville ankle injury
  • E. Mor groin injury
  • K. Kers injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Ajax lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. ter Stegen
  2. 5 O. Wijndal
  3. 15 Y. Baas
  4. 6 T. Kehrer
  5. 2 Lucas Rosa
  6. 8 J. Brandt
  7. 24 J. Mokio
  8. 4 S. Amrabat
  9. 10 O. Gloukh
  10. 99 T. Arokodare
  11. 11 V. Tsygankov

Bench: S. Adingra, D. Klaassen, O. Edvardsen, Jofre Torrents, M. Paes, Y. Bissouma, A. Bouwman, D. Janse, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida, C. Setford, A. Ouazane

NEC Nijmegen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Crettaz
  2. 24 Deveron Fonville
  3. 4 P. Schuurs
  4. 21 T. Storm
  5. 20 N. Lebreton
  6. 6 D. Nejašmić
  7. 34 Kevin Kers
  8. 73 Gabriel Brás
  9. 10 D. Tadić
  10. 9 T. Chery
  11. 30 B. Linssen

Bench: M. Bakker, I. Hansen-Aarøen, W. Willumsson, N. Polster, Adam Tahaui, A. Kaplan, Jamiro Monteiro, Freek Entius, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Clement Bischoff

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ajax 5 · draws 4 · NEC Nijmegen 1.

AjaxDrawsNEC Nijmegen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Ajax1-1NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2025-12-20NEC Nijmegen2-2AjaxEredivisie
2025-05-11Ajax0-3NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2024-12-01NEC Nijmegen1-2AjaxEredivisie
2024-02-18Ajax2-2NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2023-12-03NEC Nijmegen1-2AjaxEredivisie
2023-03-05Ajax1-0NEC NijmegenEredivisie
2023-01-08NEC Nijmegen1-1AjaxEredivisie
2022-04-23NEC Nijmegen0-1AjaxEredivisie
2021-08-14Ajax5-0NEC NijmegenEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match