Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente

· Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard· Referee Robin Hensgens

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Twente to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fortuna SittardDrawTwente

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFortuna SittardDrawTwente
Model22%21%56%
Market14%19%67%
Published16%19%64%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.40Now 1.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fortuna Sittard6.456.45+0.00
Draw5.005.00+0.00
Twente1.401.40+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fortuna Sittard and Twente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Fortuna Sittard
2.28Twente
Total expected goals
3.69
Attack rating (Fortuna Sittard / Twente)
0.96 / 1.34
Defence rating (Fortuna Sittard / Twente)
1.14 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.9% 6.5% 4.9% 4.8% 1 2.7% 8.8% 9.2% 6.9% 6.7% 2 2.5% 5.7% 6.5% 4.9% 4.8% 3 1.2% 2.7% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1%

Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fortuna Sittard vs Twente

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fortuna Sittard16%6.08
Draw19%5.16
Twente64%1.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.48
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.19
Double chance1X (Fortuna Sittard or draw)36%2.79
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Twente)84%1.20
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+36%2.80
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fortuna Sittard and Twente recent form

Fortuna Sittard 4W 0D 2L
Twente 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fortuna Sittard at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Twente away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard at home only, Twente away only.

Injuries & availability

Fortuna Sittard absences

  • I. Marquez injury
  • R. Bayram knee injury
  • Y. Oukili groin injury

Twente absences

  • S. Lemkin muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fortuna Sittard lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 M. Branderhorst
  2. 3 Rodrigo Guth
  3. 28 Justin Quincy Hubner
  4. 6 S. van Ottele
  5. 12 Ivo Pinto
  6. 23 P. Brittijn
  7. 20 É. Michut
  8. 22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
  9. 9 A. Descotte
  10. 52 M. Ihattaren
  11. 25 L. Zeefuik

Bench: L. Koopmans, S. Wylin, K. Peterson, O. Romeny, S. Simons, N. de Groot, D. Sinkgraven, K. Reitmaier, Moussa Gbemou, Ganni Buyukhan

Twente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 J. Drommel
  2. 29 A. Adelgaard
  3. 4 R. Nijstad
  4. 3 R. Pröpper
  5. 28 B. van Rooij
  6. 8 D. Weidmann
  7. 6 R. Zerrouki
  8. 7 M. Pjaca
  9. 10 Y. Taha
  10. 11 D. Rots
  11. 9 W. Weghorst

Bench: M. Rosiak, K. Hlynsson, Jordy Bawuah, T. van den Belt, R. Pasveer, K. Kurowski, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Yannick Gerritsen, N. Ünüvar

Fortuna Sittard vs Twente head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 2 · draws 1 · Twente 7.

Fortuna SittardDrawsTwente
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Fortuna Sittard1-2TwenteEredivisie
2025-09-26Twente3-2Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2025-04-05Twente1-1Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2024-11-23Fortuna Sittard1-2TwenteEredivisie
2024-04-06Twente2-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2023-10-08Fortuna Sittard0-3TwenteEredivisie
2023-03-11Fortuna Sittard0-3TwenteEredivisie
2022-08-14Twente3-0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2022-05-07Twente1-2Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2021-08-14Fortuna Sittard2-1TwenteEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match