Heerenveen vs Excelsior: model vs market
| Source | Heerenveen | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.75 | 1.55 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.39 | +0.39 |
| Excelsior | 4.10 | 5.21 | +1.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heerenveen and Excelsior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Heerenveen / Excelsior)
- 0.88 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Heerenveen / Excelsior)
- 0.88 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: Excelsior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heerenveen vs Excelsior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Excelsior | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heerenveen or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Excelsior) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win by 2+ | 22% | 4.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Heerenveen and Excelsior recent form
Heerenveen
1W 2D 3L
Excelsior
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heerenveen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Excelsior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, Excelsior away only.
Injuries & availability
Heerenveen absences
-
D. Proper
hamstring injury
Excelsior absences
-
N. Naujoks
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Heerenveen lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Klaverboer
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 4 S. Kersten
- 45 O. Braude
- 8 N. Courtens
- 16 M. Linday
- 7 M. Rivera
- 14 L. Smans
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 9 D. Vente
Bench: M. Hilgers, R. Meerveld, L. Oyen, M. Egbring, R. Uldriķis, M. Farji, D. Bladi, H. Petrov, L. Machine, T. Schreuder, A. Noppert, Anass Bouziane
Excelsior lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 S. van Gassel
- 15 S. Janssen
- 14 J. Plug
- 4 C. Widell
- 2 Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 20 L. Hartjes
- 3 R. Meissen
- 8 I. Yegoian
- 30 Á. Þorsteinsson
- 19 D. Garden
- 7 A. Sliti
Bench: D. van Vianen, Mario Domínguez, N. Naujoks, A. Jahanbakhsh, Celton Biai, V. Sulzbacher, I. Silva Timas, O. Turay, Giulliano Cairo, N. Groen
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Heerenveen 6 · draws 1 · Excelsior 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Excelsior | 1-2 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-04 | Heerenveen | 2-1 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 2024-01-19 | Excelsior | 3-0 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2023-09-23 | Heerenveen | 0-3 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-13 | Heerenveen | 0-0 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 2022-11-05 | Excelsior | 0-1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2022-07-30 | Heerenveen | 3-1 | Excelsior | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-10-30 | Excelsior | 0-3 | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| 2019-03-30 | Heerenveen | 1-0 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-17
- Telstar vs Feyenoord — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2026-10-18
- Groningen v Ajax — match page 2026-10-18
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Heerenveen, previous: PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen, 2026-10-09
- Heerenveen, next: ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen analysis
- Excelsior, previous: Excelsior – Groningen, 2026-10-11
- Excelsior, next: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: odds and pick