Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

Excelsior vs Groningen

· Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam· Referee Richard Martens

Full time1 – 5

TipsterGrid prediction was Excelsior to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ExcelsiorDrawGroningen

Excelsior vs Groningen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceExcelsiorDrawGroningen
Model52%22%26%
Market37%26%37%
Published41%25%34%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.49.
  • The market prices Excelsior below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Excelsior vs Groningen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Excelsior, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 2.26Now 2.55 +0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Excelsior2.262.55+0.29
Draw3.613.67+0.06
Groningen2.792.52-0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Excelsior and Groningen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.14Excelsior
1.49Groningen
Total expected goals
3.63
Attack rating (Excelsior / Groningen)
1.21 / 1.11
Defence rating (Excelsior / Groningen)
0.90 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Excelsior vs Groningen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 3.1% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 1 4.8% 9.3% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 2 6.1% 9.0% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.3% 6.5% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 3.8% 5.7% 4.2% 2.1% 1.1%

Rows: Excelsior goals. Columns: Groningen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Excelsior vs Groningen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Excelsior vs Groningen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Excelsior41%2.46
Draw25%4.02
Groningen34%2.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.42
Under 2.530%3.37
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.25
Double chance1X (Excelsior or draw)66%1.53
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Groningen)59%1.69
Handicap -1Excelsior win by 2+32%3.17
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Excelsior and Groningen recent form

Excelsior 2W 2D 2L
Groningen 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Excelsior at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Groningen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior at home only, Groningen away only.

Injuries & availability

Excelsior absences

  • N. Naujoks injury

Groningen absences

  • E. van der Laan injury
  • M. Jeng leg injury
  • R. Metu injury
  • T. Hernes injury
  • T. Mercera injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Excelsior lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 S. van Gassel
  2. 15 S. Janssen
  3. 14 J. Plug
  4. 4 C. Widell
  5. 2 Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
  6. 20 L. Hartjes
  7. 3 R. Meissen
  8. 8 I. Yegoian
  9. 30 Á. Þorsteinsson
  10. 19 D. Garden
  11. 7 A. Sliti

Bench: D. van Vianen, Mario Domínguez, A. Jahanbakhsh, K. Bos, Celton Biai, V. Sulzbacher, I. Silva Timas, O. Turay, Giulliano Cairo, N. Groen

Groningen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 E. Vaessen
  2. 33 H. Hateboer
  3. 5 M. Rente
  4. 3 T. Blokzijl
  5. 14 J. Schreuders
  6. 24 P. Clement
  7. 8 T. de Jonge
  8. 11 J. Ondrejka
  9. 26 T. van Bergen
  10. 17 D. van der Werff
  11. 9 B. Willumsson

Bench: Wouter Prins, M. Csinger, L. Štubljar, A. Nordin, T. Land, O. Zawada, Nils Eggens, P. Boevink, R. Metu, J. Mosselaar, J. Hall

Excelsior vs Groningen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Excelsior 3 · draws 0 · Groningen 7.

ExcelsiorDrawsGroningen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Groningen2-3ExcelsiorEredivisie
2025-12-05Excelsior0-2GroningenEredivisie
2024-01-16Excelsior0-2GroningenKNVB Beker
2023-02-25Groningen3-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2023-01-08Excelsior1-0GroningenEredivisie
2021-12-15Excelsior2-4GroningenKNVB Beker
2019-04-06Groningen1-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2018-11-02Excelsior2-4GroningenEredivisie
2018-04-29Groningen4-0ExcelsiorEredivisie
2017-12-17Excelsior2-0GroningenEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match