Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

· Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam· Referee Danny Makkelie

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Feyenoord to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FeyenoordDrawAZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFeyenoordDrawAZ Alkmaar
Model51%23%26%
Market55%23%22%
Published54%23%23%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.47.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.82Now 1.71 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Feyenoord1.821.71-0.11
Draw4.104.11+0.01
AZ Alkmaar3.604.22+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.07Feyenoord
1.47AZ Alkmaar
Total expected goals
3.53
Attack rating (Feyenoord / AZ Alkmaar)
1.60 / 1.20
Defence rating (Feyenoord / AZ Alkmaar)
0.82 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 1 5.1% 9.7% 6.5% 3.2% 1.6% 2 6.2% 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.3% 6.3% 4.6% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 3.6% 5.2% 3.8% 1.9% 1.0%

Rows: Feyenoord goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Feyenoord54%1.86
Draw23%4.37
AZ Alkmaar23%4.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.19
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.14
Double chance1X (Feyenoord or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar)46%2.17
Handicap -1Feyenoord win by 2+30%3.30
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar recent form

Feyenoord 4W 1D 1L
AZ Alkmaar 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Feyenoord at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.6 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 3.0 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

AZ Alkmaar away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Feyenoord at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.

Injuries & availability

Feyenoord absences

  • B. Nieuwkoop knee injury
  • G. Borges knock
  • G. Smal ankle injury
  • J. Bos knee injury
  • J. Moder knee injury
  • T. Beelen broken leg
  • T. Watanabe leg injury

AZ Alkmaar absences

  • S. Resink knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Feyenoord lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 T. Ernst
  2. 16 Javi López
  3. 35 Mika Màrmol
  4. 6 J. St. Juste
  5. 26 G. Read
  6. 28 O. Targhalline
  7. 34 C. Vanhoutte
  8. 8 G. Zechiël
  9. 10 L. Valente
  10. 19 Nacho Ferri
  11. 23 A. Hadj-Moussa

Bench: S. Steijn, M. Deijl, T. van den Elshout, T. Kraaijeveld, G. Diarra, T. Wessels, F. Kastenmeier, J. Zinhagel, L. Bossin

AZ Alkmaar lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 28 J. De Busser
  2. 5 M. Chávez
  3. 4 L. Schouten
  4. 3 W. Goes
  5. 22 E. Dijkstra
  6. 6 P. Koopmeiners
  7. 14 C. Stengs
  8. 8 J. Clasie
  9. 11 R. Daal
  10. 9 M. Meerdink
  11. 24 A. Oufkir

Bench: R. Owusu-Oduro, S. Maikuma, Weslley Patati, V. Byskov, B. Kovacs, D. Kwakman, W. Hoedt, D. Kasius, R. Ichihara, M. de Wit, Jerolldino Armantrading

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Feyenoord 7 · draws 2 · AZ Alkmaar 1.

FeyenoordDrawsAZ Alkmaar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Feyenoord1-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2025-09-21AZ Alkmaar3-3FeyenoordEredivisie
2025-04-05AZ Alkmaar0-1FeyenoordEredivisie
2024-11-02Feyenoord3-2AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2024-02-07Feyenoord2-0AZ AlkmaarKNVB Beker
2024-02-04AZ Alkmaar0-1FeyenoordEredivisie
2023-11-12Feyenoord1-0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2023-02-18Feyenoord2-1AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
2022-10-16AZ Alkmaar1-3FeyenoordEredivisie
2022-02-27AZ Alkmaar2-1FeyenoordEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match