Updated

Eredivisie · Matchday 8

Utrecht vs Willem II

· Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht· Referee Jannick van der Laan

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Utrecht to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UtrechtDrawWillem II

Utrecht vs Willem II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUtrechtDrawWillem II
Model49%22%29%
Market63%20%17%
Published59%21%20%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.69.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Utrecht vs Willem II odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.40Now 1.50 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Utrecht1.401.50+0.10
Draw4.784.60-0.18
Willem II6.655.57-1.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Utrecht and Willem II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.19Utrecht
1.69Willem II
Total expected goals
3.88
Attack rating (Utrecht / Willem II)
1.04 / 0.74
Defence rating (Utrecht / Willem II)
1.54 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Utrecht vs Willem II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1 3.8% 8.4% 6.4% 3.6% 2.2% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.6% 6.1% 5.2% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.3% 5.6% 4.7% 2.7% 1.6%

Rows: Utrecht goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Utrecht vs Willem II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Utrecht vs Willem II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Utrecht59%1.69
Draw21%4.80
Willem II20%5.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.34
Under 2.526%3.91
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.73
Double chance1X (Utrecht or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Willem II)41%2.45
Handicap -1Utrecht win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Utrecht and Willem II recent form

Utrecht 1W 2D 3L
Willem II 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Utrecht at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
4.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Willem II away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Utrecht at home only, Willem II away only.

Injuries & availability

Utrecht absences

  • A. Engwanda hamstring injury
  • A. Stepanov ankle injury
  • K. Paredes knee injury
  • M. Jonathans knee injury
  • N. Ohio knee injury
  • V. Jensen knee injury

Willem II absences

  • A. Culum foot injury
  • A. Lachkar groin injury
  • J. Hoogma knee injury
  • K. Boogaard knock
  • T. Didillon Hodl hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Utrecht lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Barkas
  2. 5 N. Panagiotou
  3. 3 M. Didden
  4. 2 S. Horemans
  5. 92 A. Zagré
  6. 38 O. Agougil
  7. 8 J. van Overeem
  8. 23 N. Vesterlund
  9. 10 Y. Cathline
  10. 20 D. de Wit
  11. 80 M. Broholm

Bench: G. Offerhaus, Ángel Alarcón, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, S. Padt, P. Kloosterboer, K. Gadellaa, D. van den Berg, N. Amrabat

Willem II lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 M. Delanghe
  2. 24 N. Tjoe-A-On
  3. 23 M. Dekker
  4. 3 F. Stam
  5. 5 H. ter Avest
  6. 52 T. Vilhena
  7. 6 C. Twigt
  8. 32 V. van Crooij
  9. 19 Uriel van Aalst
  10. 7 J. Slory
  11. 9 D. Haen

Bench: A. Ciranni, J. Schuurman, Jens Mathijsen, A. Et-Taïbi, O. Martin, Anass Zarrouk, W. van der Steen, Per van Loon, T. Verheydt, K. de Leeuw, E. Gürbüz, M. Lemmens

Utrecht vs Willem II head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Utrecht 7 · draws 1 · Willem II 2.

UtrechtDrawsWillem II
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-09Willem II2-3UtrechtEredivisie
2024-09-21Utrecht3-2Willem IIEredivisie
2022-05-15Willem II3-0UtrechtEredivisie
2021-10-31Utrecht5-1Willem IIEredivisie
2021-05-01Utrecht3-2Willem IIEredivisie
2021-02-19Willem II0-6UtrechtEredivisie
2020-02-16Willem II1-1UtrechtEredivisie
2019-09-29Utrecht2-0Willem IIEredivisie
2019-01-27Utrecht0-1Willem IIEredivisie
2018-10-28Willem II0-1UtrechtEredivisie

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match