Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 10

Hibernian vs Celtic

· Easter Road, Edinburgh· Referee R. Lee

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Celtic to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HibernianDrawCeltic

Hibernian vs Celtic: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHibernianDrawCeltic
Model26%25%48%
Market18%21%61%
Published20%22%58%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hibernian vs Celtic odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.66Now 1.55 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hibernian4.425.40+0.99
Draw4.034.50+0.47
Celtic1.661.55-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hibernian and Celtic expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Hibernian
1.77Celtic
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Hibernian / Celtic)
0.78 / 1.44
Defence rating (Hibernian / Celtic)
1.03 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hibernian vs Celtic score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 7.3% 7.5% 4.4% 2.9% 1 5.0% 11.8% 9.5% 5.6% 3.7% 2 3.8% 6.8% 6.1% 3.6% 2.4% 3 1.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Hibernian goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hibernian vs Celtic goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hibernian vs Celtic

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hibernian20%5.05
Draw22%4.51
Celtic58%1.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.43
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Hibernian or draw)42%2.38
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Celtic)80%1.25
Handicap -1Celtic win by 2+27%3.72
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hibernian and Celtic recent form

Hibernian 0W 1D 5L
Celtic 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hibernian at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Celtic away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hibernian at home only, Celtic away only.

Expected lineups

Hibernian lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 R. Sallinger
  2. 5 M. Ivezić
  3. 6 J. Kerr
  4. 3 A. Mayor
  5. 10 M. Boyle
  6. 14 M. Chaiwa
  7. 8 J. Mulligan
  8. 25 F. Passlack
  9. 17 J. McGrath
  10. 18 T. Klidje
  11. 7 O. Elding

Bench: G. Hanley, J. Newell, Alex Williams, J. Smith, J. Iredale, N. Cadden, A. Šuto, R. Matondo, A. Abdulai

Celtic lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 S. Johnstone
  2. 63 K. Tierney
  3. 5 L. Scales
  4. 47 D. Murray
  5. 51 Colby Donovan
  6. 22 M. Baur
  7. 42 C. McGregor
  8. 19 C. Osmand
  9. 8 B. Nygren
  10. 11 C. Durán
  11. 9 K. Høgh

Bench: V. Sinisalo, A. Johnston, Jota, O. Sørensen, C. Carter-Vickers, A. Oxlade-Chamberlain, H. Hassan, Shumaira Mheuka, J. Forrest

Hibernian vs Celtic head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hibernian 2 · draws 1 · Celtic 7.

HibernianDrawsCeltic
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Hibernian1-2CelticScotland Premiership
2026-02-22Celtic1-2HibernianScotland Premiership
2025-11-30Hibernian1-2CelticScotland Premiership
2025-09-27Celtic0-0HibernianScotland Premiership
2025-05-10Celtic3-1HibernianPremiership
2025-03-09Celtic2-0HibernianScotland FA Cup
2025-02-22Hibernian2-1CelticPremiership
2024-12-07Celtic3-0HibernianPremiership
2024-08-18Celtic3-1HibernianLeague Cup
2024-08-11Hibernian0-2CelticPremiership

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match