Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 10

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen

· CalForth Construction Arena, Dundee· Referee D. Dickinson

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Dundee Utd to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dundee UtdDrawAberdeen

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDundee UtdDrawAberdeen
Model39%31%30%
Market45%26%29%
Published43%28%29%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dundee Utd, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.16Now 2.12 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dundee Utd2.162.12-0.04
Draw3.543.60+0.06
Aberdeen3.103.25+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dundee Utd and Aberdeen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Dundee Utd
1.03Aberdeen
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (Dundee Utd / Aberdeen)
0.92 / 0.96
Defence rating (Dundee Utd / Aberdeen)
0.90 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.9% 9.6% 5.7% 1.9% 0.6% 1 11.5% 14.6% 6.8% 2.4% 0.8% 2 7.8% 8.0% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 3 3.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Dundee Utd goals. Columns: Aberdeen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dundee Utd43%2.32
Draw28%3.63
Aberdeen29%3.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.57
Under 2.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.15
No53%1.87
Double chance1X (Dundee Utd or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Aberdeen)57%1.76
Handicap -1Dundee Utd win by 2+17%5.75
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dundee Utd and Aberdeen recent form

Dundee Utd 3W 2D 1L
Aberdeen 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dundee Utd at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aberdeen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee Utd at home only, Aberdeen away only.

Expected lineups

Dundee Utd lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Walton
  2. 19 K. Ciubotaru
  3. 18 M. Forbes
  4. 3 B. Esselink
  5. 23 J. Rawlins
  6. 16 L. Cameron
  7. 10 D. Tait
  8. 14 Zidane Iqbal
  9. 77 D. Bennie
  10. 9 Z. Sapsford
  11. 21 J. Randall

Bench: I. Iovu, R. Graham, Panutche Camará, L. Rose, N. Farrugia, D. Naamo, Abdoulaye Yoro, J. Amissah, I. Metsoko

Aberdeen lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 27 M. Müller
  2. 24 N. Guinness-Walker
  3. 21 G. Molloy
  4. 25 C. Ronan
  5. 22 J. Milne
  6. 28 C. Cadden
  7. 17 S. Armstrong
  8. 32 A. Aremu
  9. 8 B. Lyons
  10. 15 K. Nisbet
  11. 9 A. Mouloua

Bench: N. Devlin, A. Briedl, Lewis Smith, H. Mahou, T. Olusanya, D. Klein, M. Ntelo, E. Gyamfi

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Dundee Utd 3 · draws 3 · Aberdeen 4.

Dundee UtdDrawsAberdeen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Aberdeen2-0Dundee UtdScotland Premiership
2026-02-24Dundee Utd0-0AberdeenScotland Premiership
2025-12-27Aberdeen1-1Dundee UtdScotland Premiership
2025-09-23Dundee Utd2-0AberdeenScotland Premiership
2025-05-17Dundee Utd2-1AberdeenPremiership
2025-03-02Aberdeen2-2Dundee UtdPremiership
2024-12-29Dundee Utd1-0AberdeenPremiership
2024-10-26Aberdeen1-0Dundee UtdPremiership
2023-03-04Dundee Utd1-3AberdeenPremiership
2022-11-12Aberdeen1-0Dundee UtdPremiership

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match