Updated

Scotland Premiership · Matchday 10

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian

· Fir Park, Motherwell· Referee D. Nicolson

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Heart Of Midlothian to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MotherwellDrawHeart Of Midlothian

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMotherwellDrawHeart Of Midlothian
Model42%23%35%
Market29%26%45%
Published32%25%42%
Edge+3%-1%-2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.15Now 2.10 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Motherwell3.083.18+0.10
Draw3.563.60+0.04
Heart Of Midlothian2.152.10-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Motherwell
1.78Heart Of Midlothian
Total expected goals
3.71
Attack rating (Motherwell / Heart Of Midlothian)
0.93 / 1.14
Defence rating (Motherwell / Heart Of Midlothian)
1.30 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.5% 3.9% 2.3% 1.5% 1 3.9% 9.3% 7.5% 4.4% 2.9% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.2% 4.3% 2.8% 3 2.9% 5.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.8% 4+ 2.2% 3.9% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4%

Rows: Motherwell goals. Columns: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Motherwell32%3.08
Draw25%3.95
Heart Of Midlothian42%2.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.40
Under 2.528%3.52
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.55
Double chance1X (Motherwell or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Heart Of Midlothian)68%1.48
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+19%5.38
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian recent form

Motherwell 1W 0D 5L
Heart Of Midlothian 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Motherwell at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

Heart Of Midlothian away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Motherwell at home only, Heart Of Midlothian away only.

Expected lineups

Motherwell lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Paulsen
  2. 45 M. Emmanuel
  3. 5 M. Moormann
  4. 3 J. Girdwood-Reich
  5. 7 T. Sparrow
  6. 71 J. Hodge
  7. 63 D. Levitt
  8. 19 I. Said
  9. 6 J. McGhee
  10. 18 Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
  11. 47 S. Palmer-Houlden

Bench: S. O'Donnell, Jamie Knight-Lebel, J. Kanga, E. Björgólfs­son, M. Connelly, E. Wilson, M. Booth, W. Vogt

Heart Of Midlothian lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 B. Reus
  2. 3 S. Kingsley
  3. 5 J. McCart
  4. 64 M. Fagan-Walcott
  5. 23 J. Altena
  6. 15 J. McPake
  7. 22 T. Magnússon
  8. 78 L. Mendy
  9. 29 S. Kerjota
  10. 10 Cláudio Braga
  11. 21 J. Wilson

Bench: C. Miller, J. Williams, P. Kabore, S. Guendouz, A. Benjaminsen, R. Fulton, Y. Dhanda, R. Mato, A. Ba-Sy

Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Motherwell 1 · draws 4 · Heart Of Midlothian 5.

MotherwellDrawsHeart Of Midlothian
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Motherwell1-1Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2026-04-11Heart Of Midlothian3-1MotherwellScotland Premiership
2025-11-29Motherwell0-0Heart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership
2025-08-23Heart Of Midlothian3-3MotherwellScotland Premiership
2025-05-10Heart Of Midlothian3-0MotherwellPremiership
2025-04-12Motherwell0-0Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2025-01-02Heart Of Midlothian1-0MotherwellPremiership
2024-08-25Motherwell3-1Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
2024-02-17Heart Of Midlothian2-0MotherwellPremiership
2023-11-11Motherwell1-2Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match