Fiorentina vs Juventus preview
Fiorentina faces Juventus with probabilities of 23% for a Fiorentina win, 26% for a draw, and 51% for a Juventus victory. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs at a rate of 10%. Juventus has a higher expected goals figure at 1.97 compared to Fiorentina's 1.06, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
Fiorentina's recent form shows 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Juventus has 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. This disparity in form could influence the outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, suggesting a competitive match, but Fiorentina's struggle for consistency could be a factor that undermines their chances.
Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fiorentina vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Fiorentina | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Published | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fiorentina vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 4.64 | 3.48 | -1.16 |
| Draw | 4.23 | 3.60 | -0.63 |
| Juventus | 1.78 | 2.06 | +0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fiorentina and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Fiorentina / Juventus)
- 1.38 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Fiorentina / Juventus)
- 1.22 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fiorentina vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fiorentina vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fiorentina vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 23% | 4.27 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Juventus | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fiorentina or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 32% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fiorentina and Juventus recent form
Fiorentina
1W 2D 3L
Juventus
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fiorentina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Juventus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Juventus away only.
Fiorentina vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 2 · draws 2 · Juventus 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Juventus | 0-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-11-22 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-03-16 | Fiorentina | 3-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-12-29 | Juventus | 2-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-04-07 | Juventus | 1-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2023-11-05 | Fiorentina | 0-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Napoli v Lazio — match page 2026-11-08
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Fiorentina, previous: Sassuolo v Fiorentina analysis
- Juventus, previous: AZ Alkmaar – Juventus, 2026-11-05