AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC, AC Milan holds a 58% probability of winning compared to Ferencvarosi TC's 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 6% probability. However, the expected goals suggest a different narrative, as Ferencvarosi TC has an expected goals figure of 2.15, which indicates they could pose a significant threat.

Both teams are showing recent form that could influence the match outcome. AC Milan's last six matches include three wins, while Ferencvarosi TC has two wins and two draws in their last six. The model indicates a 66% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score, highlighting the potential for a high-scoring encounter.

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AC Milan	Draw	Ferencvarosi TC
Model	20%	22%	58%
Market	71%	18%	11%
Published	58%	19%	23%
Edge	-13%	+1%	+12%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -22.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.33Now 1.32 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AC Milan	1.33	1.32	-0.01
Draw	5.30	5.33	+0.03
Ferencvarosi TC	8.12	8.32	+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19AC Milan

2.13Ferencvarosi TC

Total expected goals: 3.33
Attack rating (AC Milan / Ferencvarosi TC): 1.26 / 1.56
Defence rating (AC Milan / Ferencvarosi TC): 1.14 / 0.61

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 6.8% 8.2% 5.8% 5.1% 1 3.4% 10.1% 9.8% 6.9% 6.1% 2 2.6% 5.4% 5.8% 4.1% 3.6% 3 1.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.4% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6%

Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Ferencvarosi TC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Milan vs Ferencvarosi TC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AC Milan	58%	1.72
	Draw	19%	5.32
	Ferencvarosi TC	23%	4.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.55
	Under 2.5	35%	2.82
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.61
	No	38%	2.65
Double chance	1X (AC Milan or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	81%	1.23
	X2 (draw or Ferencvarosi TC)	42%	2.39
Handicap -1	AC Milan win by 2+	8%	12.50
	Push (exactly one goal)	12%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

AC Milan and Ferencvarosi TC recent form

AC Milan 4W 0D 2L

Ferencvarosi TC 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AC Milan at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Ferencvarosi TC away

Record (W-D-L): 4-1-0
Win rate: 80%
Goals for / match: 1.80
Goals against / match: 0.80
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Ferencvarosi TC away only.