Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty preview
Atalanta faces Kairat Almaty with a 71% probability of winning, compared to Kairat's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Atalanta's expected goals stand at 1.93, while Kairat Almaty has a lower figure of 1.57.
Despite Atalanta's stronger position, recent form shows both teams have had mixed results, with Atalanta recording D-D-L-L-W-W and Kairat Almaty at D-D-L-W-D-W. This inconsistency could influence the match outcome, as both teams have shown the ability to score, with a 69% probability for both teams to score.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| Edge | -10% | +3% | +8% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.18 | 1.16 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 6.70 | 7.20 | +0.50 |
| Kairat Almaty | 13.00 | 15.00 | +2.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Kairat Almaty)
- 1.00 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Kairat Almaty)
- 1.28 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Kairat Almaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.31 | |
| Kairat Almaty | 14% | 7.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Kairat Almaty) | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty recent form
Atalanta
1W 2D 3L
Kairat Almaty
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Kairat Almaty away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Kairat Almaty away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax — match page 2026-11-05
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- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes 2026-11-05
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split 2026-11-05
- Trabzonspor v Freiburg — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-11-05
- KuPS v Gent — match page 2026-11-05
- Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Atalanta, previous: Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 analysis
- Atalanta, next: Monza vs Atalanta prediction
- Kairat Almaty, previous: Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22