Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

· Stockhorn Arena, Thun· Referee J. Gillett

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was HNK Hajduk Split to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC ThunDrawHNK Hajduk Split

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC ThunDrawHNK Hajduk Split
Model23%21%56%
Market33%26%41%
Published30%25%45%
Edge-3%-1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices HNK Hajduk Split below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split odds movement

Median bookmaker price on HNK Hajduk Split, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.48Now 2.29 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Thun2.672.89+0.21
Draw3.423.55+0.13
HNK Hajduk Split2.482.29-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42FC Thun
2.32HNK Hajduk Split
Total expected goals
3.74
Attack rating (FC Thun / HNK Hajduk Split)
1.15 / 1.34
Defence rating (FC Thun / HNK Hajduk Split)
1.45 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 4.7% 6.4% 4.9% 4.9% 1 2.6% 8.6% 9.1% 7.0% 7.0% 2 2.4% 5.6% 6.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3 1.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4+ 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2%

Rows: FC Thun goals. Columns: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Thun30%3.33
Draw25%3.97
HNK Hajduk Split45%2.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.58
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (FC Thun or draw)55%1.81
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split)70%1.43
Handicap -1HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+36%2.75
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split recent form

FC Thun 1W 1D 4L
HNK Hajduk Split 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

HNK Hajduk Split away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Thun at home only, HNK Hajduk Split away only.

Expected lineups

FC Thun lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Niklas Steffen
  2. 2 Olivier Mambwa
  3. 19 Jan Bamert
  4. 23 Marco Bürki
  5. 47 Fabio Fehr
  6. 30 Nico Maier
  7. 14 Mattias Käit
  8. 16 Justin Roth
  9. 70 Nils Reichmuth
  10. 9 Furkan Dursun
  11. 96 Brighton Labeau

Bench: Nicolas Bürgy, Nassim Zoukit, Tom Strannegård, Riccardo Braschi, Dorian Derbaci, Dario Walti, Tim Spycher, Noah Christoffersson, Lucien Dähler, Adam Ilic, Louis Passavant, Simon Lengen

HNK Hajduk Split lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 33 Toni Silić
  2. 32 Šimun Hrgović
  3. 15 Dario Marešić
  4. 6 Dennis Hadžikadunić
  5. 22 Mathieu Acapandié
  6. 20 Alberto del Moral
  7. 8 Khalil Fayad
  8. 23 Marin Šotiček
  9. 9 Dalisson de Almeida
  10. 7 Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba
  11. 11 Michele Šego

Bench: Roko Gabrić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Marko Livaja, Ron Raçi, Anđelo Šutalo, Dario Melnjak, Leander Dendoncker, Etnik Brruti, Adam Huram, Dante Stipica, Carlos Martín, Davyd Fesyuk

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