Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Getafe vs FC Lugano

· Coliseum, Getafe· Referee A. Karaoglan

Full time2 – 5

TipsterGrid prediction was Getafe to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

3% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GetafeDrawFC Lugano

Getafe vs FC Lugano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGetafeDrawFC Lugano
Model9%17%75%
Market49%28%23%
Published39%25%36%
Edge-10%-3%+13%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Getafe vs FC Lugano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Getafe, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.80Now 1.94 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Getafe1.801.94+0.14
Draw3.453.30-0.15
FC Lugano4.454.10-0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Getafe and FC Lugano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Getafe
2.58FC Lugano
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Getafe / FC Lugano)
0.74 / 1.98
Defence rating (Getafe / FC Lugano)
1.10 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Getafe vs FC Lugano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 8.0% 11.2% 9.7% 11.6% 1 2.0% 7.7% 9.1% 7.8% 9.4% 2 1.1% 2.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: FC Lugano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Getafe vs FC Lugano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Getafe vs FC Lugano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Getafe39%2.59
Draw25%3.92
FC Lugano36%2.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.92
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Getafe or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or FC Lugano)61%1.63
Handicap -1Getafe win by 2+3%37.10
Push (exactly one goal)6%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Getafe and FC Lugano recent form

Getafe 1W 3D 2L
FC Lugano 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Getafe at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

FC Lugano away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, FC Lugano away only.

Expected lineups

Getafe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 David Soria
  2. 3 Davinchi
  3. 26 Jean Ives Valou
  4. 5 Abdel Abqar
  5. 17 Kiko Femenía
  6. 16 Francho Serrano
  7. 2 Djené
  8. 28 Alberto Risco
  9. 9 Borja Mayoral
  10. 21 Andrés García
  11. 20 Ivan Azón

Bench: Jiří Letáček, Saba Sazonov, Mario Martín, Nemanja Gudelj, Martín Satriano, Ramón Terrats, Sebastián Boselli, Enes Ünal, Johan Mojica, Diego Ferrer

FC Lugano lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 16 David von Ballmoos
  2. 3 Hannes Delcroix
  3. 17 Lars Lukas Mai
  4. 6 Antonios Papadopoulos
  5. 21 Yanis Cimignani
  6. 27 Daniel Dos Santos
  7. 8 Anto Grgić
  8. 25 Uran Bislimi
  9. 46 Mattia Zanotti
  10. 30 Dereck Moncada
  11. 9 Albian Ajeti

Bench: Bekhruz Karimov, Damian Kelvin, Ezgjan Alioski, Ahmed Kendouci, Beckham Castro, Elias Pihlström, Martim Marques, Felix Gebhardt, Kevin Behrens, Diego Mina

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match