Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor, the probabilities show a clear advantage for Trabzonspor at 58%, compared to Alanyaspor's 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at 11%. Trabzonspor's recent form is impressive, with 6 consecutive wins, while Alanyaspor has struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 5 matches.
The expected goals further illustrate the disparity, with Alanyaspor at 0.91 and Trabzonspor at 2.34. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the prediction. A potential factor that could influence the outcome is Alanyaspor's ability to improve their form, as they have managed 2 draws in their last 5 games.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor: model vs market
| Source | Alanyaspor | Draw | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Trabzonspor below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Trabzonspor, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 3.77 | 4.47 | +0.70 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.75 | -0.03 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.91 | 1.73 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Alanyaspor / Trabzonspor)
- 0.74 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Alanyaspor / Trabzonspor)
- 1.25 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alanyaspor goals. Columns: Trabzonspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 19% | 5.34 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Trabzonspor | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alanyaspor or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Trabzonspor) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win by 2+ | 47% | 2.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor recent form
Alanyaspor
1W 2D 3L
Trabzonspor
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alanyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trabzonspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alanyaspor at home only, Trabzonspor away only.
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alanyaspor 0 · draws 2 · Trabzonspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Alanyaspor | 1-1 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-11-08 | Trabzonspor | 1-1 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa 2026-11-06
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Alanyaspor, previous: Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor analysis
- Trabzonspor, previous: Trabzonspor – Freiburg, 2026-11-05