Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK, the probabilities show Rizespor at 45% to win, while Erzurumspor FK sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, which could impact the outcome; Rizespor's latest results include D-L-L-L-D-W, while Erzurumspor FK has L-W-W-D-W-L.
The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.27, indicating a balanced matchup. Additionally, there is a 53% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this analysis is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions. The close probabilities and equal expected goals highlight the potential for a tightly contested match.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Rizespor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rizespor, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 1.94 | 1.94 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.53 | -0.07 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 3.62 | 3.70 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Rizespor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 0.90 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Rizespor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 1.22 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rizespor goals. Columns: Erzurumspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rizespor | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rizespor or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Erzurumspor FK) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rizespor win by 2+ | 16% | 6.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK recent form
Rizespor
1W 2D 3L
Erzurumspor FK
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rizespor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Erzurumspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rizespor at home only, Erzurumspor FK away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa 2026-11-06
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Rizespor, previous: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor: odds and pick
- Erzurumspor FK, previous: Erzurumspor FK – Çorum FK, 2026-10-31