Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor, the probabilities indicate a 23% chance for Eyüpspor to win, while Kocaelispor holds a 49% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance according to our model. Eyüpspor's recent form shows a streak of six consecutive losses, which could impact their performance despite their historical head-to-head advantage of 2 wins in the last 6 matches.
Kocaelispor's recent form includes a draw and two wins in their last six games, suggesting a more stable performance. The expected goals metrics reflect this, with Eyüpspor at 0.74 and Kocaelispor at 1.62. The model also shows a 42% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor: model vs market
| Source | Eyüpspor | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 27% | 57% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Published | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kocaelispor below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kocaelispor, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | 4.10 | 3.62 | -0.47 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.30 | -0.35 |
| Kocaelispor | 1.90 | 2.04 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Eyüpspor / Kocaelispor)
- 0.65 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Eyüpspor / Kocaelispor)
- 1.72 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eyüpspor goals. Columns: Kocaelispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eyüpspor | 23% | 4.29 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Kocaelispor | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eyüpspor or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Kocaelispor) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kocaelispor win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor recent form
Eyüpspor
0W 0D 6L
Kocaelispor
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eyüpspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 10 matches.
Kocaelispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Eyüpspor at home only, Kocaelispor away only.
Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Eyüpspor 2 · draws 1 · Kocaelispor 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Eyüpspor | 0-1 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-04 | Kocaelispor | 1-0 | Eyüpspor | Süper Lig |
| 2024-01-20 | Kocaelispor | 2-1 | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
| 2023-08-21 | Eyüpspor | 2-0 | Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| 2022-05-14 | Eyüpspor | 2-1 | Kocaelispor | 1. Lig |
| 2021-12-19 | Kocaelispor | 1-1 | Eyüpspor | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa 2026-11-06
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Eyüpspor, previous: Amed v Eyüpspor analysis
- Kocaelispor, previous: Kocaelispor vs Rizespor: odds and pick