Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K., Beşiktaş holds a 73% probability to win, while Gençlerbirliği S.K. sits at just 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% likelihood. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Beşiktaş, reflected in their expected goals of 2.40 compared to Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 1.24.
However, the recent form of both teams presents a potential complication. Beşiktaş has recorded a mixed bag of results with D-W-D-L-W-W, while Gençlerbirliği S.K. has struggled, posting W-L-L-D-L-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, despite the statistical edge for Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.: model vs market
| Source | Beşiktaş | Draw | Gençlerbirliği S.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 1.32 | 1.21 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 6.35 | +1.05 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9.00 | 11.00 | +2.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Gençlerbirliği S.K.)
- 1.40 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Gençlerbirliği S.K.)
- 0.99 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.23 | |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11% | 9.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Beşiktaş or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.) | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. recent form
Beşiktaş
3W 2D 1L
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beşiktaş at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gençlerbirliği S.K. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Beşiktaş at home only, Gençlerbirliği S.K. away only.
Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Beşiktaş 1 · draws 0 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0-2 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-18 | Beşiktaş | 1-2 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa 2026-11-06
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Beşiktaş, previous: Celtic vs Beşiktaş: odds and pick
- Gençlerbirliği S.K., previous: Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor analysis