Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe, the model gives Fenerbahçe a 47% chance to win, compared to Çorum FK's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 6% probability. Çorum FK has a higher expected goals figure at 2.20, while Fenerbahçe sits at 1.63.
Despite the statistical edge for Fenerbahçe, their recent form shows inconsistency, with two losses in their last six matches. Çorum FK, on the other hand, has won three of their last six. This variance in form could influence the match outcome, making it a key factor to consider in the analysis.
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market
| Source | Çorum FK | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Published | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Edge | +7% | 0% | -6% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | 4.05 | 4.03 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.88 | -0.06 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Çorum FK / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.30 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Çorum FK / Fenerbahçe)
- 0.95 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Çorum FK goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Çorum FK | 30% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Fenerbahçe | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Çorum FK or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fenerbahçe win by 2+ | 14% | 7.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe recent form
Çorum FK
4W 0D 2L
Fenerbahçe
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Çorum FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fenerbahçe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Çorum FK at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa 2026-11-06
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Çorum FK, previous: Erzurumspor FK – Çorum FK, 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe, previous: Fenerbahçe – Liverpool, 2026-11-04