Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa, the key figure is the 39% probability for Kasımpaşa to win, compared to Gaziantep FK's 33%. The recent form heavily favors Kasımpaşa, who have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Gaziantep FK has struggled with 5 losses and a draw.
Despite Kasımpaşa's advantage, the match could be influenced by Gaziantep FK's home ground, where they have historically performed better, winning 3 of their last 10 encounters against Kasımpaşa. The expected goals also highlight a disparity, with Gaziantep FK at 0.97 and Kasımpaşa at 1.68, indicating a potential for Kasımpaşa to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market
| Source | Gaziantep FK | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kasımpaşa below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 2.79 | 2.50 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.31 | -0.14 |
| Kasımpaşa | 2.42 | 2.69 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Gaziantep FK / Kasımpaşa)
- 0.70 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Gaziantep FK / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.28 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gaziantep FK goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gaziantep FK | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Kasımpaşa | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gaziantep FK or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa recent form
Gaziantep FK
0W 1D 5L
Kasımpaşa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gaziantep FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kasımpaşa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gaziantep FK at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.
Injuries & availability
Gaziantep FK absences
- A. Kizildag inactive
-
F. Bavuk
hamstring injury
- K. Tobiasz inactive
-
N. Sangare
back injury
- O. Ozcicek inactive
- S. Dursun inactive
-
S. Hansen
inactive
- U. Meleke injury
Kasımpaşa absences
- A. Karapo injury
- F. Diabate inactive
- G. Frimpong injury
-
K. Corekci
achilles tendon injury
- K. Mouanga inactive
-
M. Ouanes
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gaziantep FK 3 · draws 2 · Kasımpaşa 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Gaziantep FK | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-08-30 | Kasımpaşa | 2-3 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2025-05-24 | Gaziantep FK | 2-2 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-01-05 | Kasımpaşa | 2-2 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2024-04-21 | Gaziantep FK | 2-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2023-12-03 | Kasımpaşa | 4-2 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2023-08-02 | Kasımpaşa | 4-2 | Gaziantep FK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-02 | Gaziantep FK | 0-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2022-10-01 | Kasımpaşa | 1-0 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2022-04-03 | Kasımpaşa | 2-1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gaziantep FK, previous: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK: odds and pick
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş prediction