Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 10

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK

· Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum· Referee K. Saglam

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Çorum FK to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Erzurumspor FKDrawÇorum FK

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceErzurumspor FKDrawÇorum FK
Model35%30%35%
Market35%28%37%
Published35%29%36%
Edge0%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Çorum FK, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.40Now 2.55 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Erzurumspor FK2.772.67-0.10
Draw3.453.30-0.15
Çorum FK2.402.55+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.24Erzurumspor FK
1.24Çorum FK
Total expected goals
2.49
Attack rating (Erzurumspor FK / Çorum FK)
0.88 / 1.26
Defence rating (Erzurumspor FK / Çorum FK)
0.81 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 9.0% 6.4% 2.7% 1.1% 1 9.1% 14.1% 8.0% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 3 2.7% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Erzurumspor FK goals. Columns: Çorum FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Erzurumspor FK35%2.85
Draw29%3.49
Çorum FK36%2.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.21
Under 2.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Erzurumspor FK or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Çorum FK)65%1.54
Handicap -1Çorum FK win by 2+16%6.34
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK recent form

Erzurumspor FK 4W 1D 1L
Çorum FK 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Erzurumspor FK at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Çorum FK away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK at home only, Çorum FK away only.

Injuries & availability

Erzurumspor FK absences

  • M. Yumlu injury

Çorum FK absences

  • C. Soyuncu injury
  • E. Gurluk injury
  • S. Saatci inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Erzurumspor FK lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran
  2. 15 Guram Giorbelidze
  3. 18 Nihad Mujakić
  4. 3 Yakup Kırtay
  5. 4 Amar Gerxhaliu
  6. 53 Orhan Ovacıklı
  7. 65 Martín Rodríguez
  8. 42 Elisha Owusu
  9. 6 Brandon Baiye
  10. 10 Eren Tozlu
  11. 20 Miguel Cardoso

Bench: Festy Ebosele, Sefa Akgün, Gyrano Kerk, Ibrahim Diabaté, Cengizhan Bayrak, Ömer Arda Kara, Matija Orbanić, Lawrence Agyekum, Nariman Akhundzade, Mustafa Fettahoglu

Çorum FK lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Marcos Felipe
  2. 24 Andrei Borza
  3. 6 Hrvoje Smolčić
  4. 2 Çağlar Söyüncü
  5. 11 Gökhan Sazdağı
  6. 26 Ermin Mahmić
  7. 20 Ylber Ramadani
  8. 89 Alexandros Kyziridis
  9. 10 Mohammed Diomande
  10. 7 Cengiz Ünder
  11. 19 Jesús Ramírez

Bench: Berat Özdemir, Serdar Saatçı, Alexandre Penetra, Markus Karlsbakk, Mame Thiam, Youssoufa Moukoko, Arda Şengül, Erhan Erentürk, Göktan Gürpüz, Ahmed Ildız

Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Erzurumspor FK 6 · draws 3 · Çorum FK 1.

Erzurumspor FKDrawsÇorum FK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Çorum FK1-1Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2025-12-28Erzurumspor FK1-0Çorum FK1. Lig
2025-04-09Erzurumspor FK1-1Çorum FK1. Lig
2024-11-30Çorum FK0-1Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2024-04-28Erzurumspor FK2-1Çorum FK1. Lig
2023-12-10Çorum FK4-1Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
2014-05-04Erzurumspor FK1-0Çorum FK3. Lig - Group 2
2013-12-15Çorum FK1-1Erzurumspor FK3. Lig - Group 2
2013-02-03Çorum FK0-3Erzurumspor FK3. Lig - Group 3
2012-09-23Erzurumspor FK2-0Çorum FK3. Lig - Group 3

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match