Kocaelispor 0-0 Rizespor: Prediction vs Result 31.10.26

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kocaelispor	Draw	Rizespor
Model	52%	26%	21%
Market	37%	28%	35%
Published	41%	27%	32%
Edge	+4%	0%	-4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.02.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Kocaelispor below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Kocaelispor, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.56Now 2.52 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Kocaelispor	2.56	2.52	-0.04
Draw	3.40	3.34	-0.06
Rizespor	2.60	2.62	+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kocaelispor and Rizespor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Kocaelispor

1.02Rizespor

Total expected goals: 2.73
Attack rating (Kocaelispor / Rizespor): 0.85 / 1.01
Defence rating (Kocaelispor / Rizespor): 0.83 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 5.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 1 10.0% 12.5% 5.8% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 5.4% 5.5% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Kocaelispor goals. Columns: Rizespor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kocaelispor vs Rizespor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kocaelispor vs Rizespor

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kocaelispor	41%	2.46
	Draw	27%	3.65
	Rizespor	32%	3.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.87
	No	47%	2.15
Double chance	1X (Kocaelispor or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Rizespor)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Kocaelispor win by 2+	29%	3.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kocaelispor and Rizespor recent form

Kocaelispor 3W 0D 3L

Rizespor 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kocaelispor at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 3 of 4

They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rizespor away

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-1
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 1.60
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kocaelispor at home only, Rizespor away only.