Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş: model vs market
| Source | Kasımpaşa | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Published | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 4.20 | 5.02 | +0.82 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.24 | +0.39 |
| Beşiktaş | 1.82 | 1.58 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Kasımpaşa / Beşiktaş)
- 1.06 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Kasımpaşa / Beşiktaş)
- 0.90 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kasımpaşa goals. Columns: Beşiktaş goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 23% | 4.41 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Beşiktaş | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kasımpaşa or draw) | 46% | 2.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Beşiktaş) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş recent form
Kasımpaşa
3W 2D 1L
Beşiktaş
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kasımpaşa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beşiktaş away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kasımpaşa at home only, Beşiktaş away only.
Injuries & availability
Kasımpaşa absences
- G. Frimpong injury
-
K. Corekci
achilles tendon injury
-
M. Ouanes
muscle injury
Beşiktaş absences
- F. Miretti injury
-
M. Rashica
muscle injury
-
O. Kokcu
foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Kasımpaşa lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Andreas Gianniotis
- 45 Ayberk Karapo
- 27 Matei Ilie
- 4 Adem Arous
- 2 Cláudio Winck
- 26 Kerem Demirbay
- 7 Ali Yavuz Kol
- 51 Elson Mendes
- 10 Haris Hajradinović
- 17 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
- 9 Adrian Benedyczak
Bench: Jakob Jessen, Atakan Mujde, Thiemoko Diarra, Ömer Bayram, Marcus Rafferty, Ali Emre Yanar, Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı, Mecit Deniz, Güven Yalçın, Emirhan Boz
Beşiktaş lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Alexander Nübel
- 33 Rıdvan Yılmaz
- 53 Emirhan Topçu
- 12 Emmanuel Agbadou
- 62 Amir Murillo
- 6 Salih Özcan
- 19 Leandro Trossard
- 4 Wilfred Ndidi
- 15 Junior Olaitan
- 18 Václav Černý
- 28 Dušan Vlahović
Bench: Milot Rashica, Kartal Kayra Yılmaz, Hyeon-gyu Oh, Kassoum Ouattara, Taylan Bulut, İlhan Fakılı, Tiago Djaló, Yasin Özcan, Doğan Alemdar, Semih Kılıçsoy
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kasımpaşa 4 · draws 3 · Beşiktaş 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Beşiktaş | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-26 | Kasımpaşa | 1-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2025-04-07 | Kasımpaşa | 1-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2024-11-02 | Beşiktaş | 1-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2024-05-26 | Kasımpaşa | 2-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2024-01-05 | Beşiktaş | 1-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2023-06-03 | Kasımpaşa | 2-5 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2023-01-07 | Beşiktaş | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2022-04-25 | Beşiktaş | 0-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2021-12-03 | Kasımpaşa | 1-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-31
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe 2026-10-31
- Amed vs Eyüpspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Başakşehir v Samsunspor — match page 2026-11-01
- Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Eyüpspor – Kasımpaşa, 2026-10-24
- Kasımpaşa, next: Gaziantep FK – Kasımpaşa, 2026-11-06
- Beşiktaş, previous: Beşiktaş v Başakşehir analysis
- Beşiktaş, next: Celtic vs Beşiktaş: odds and pick