Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Club Brugge KV vs Lens

· Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges· Referee Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Club Brugge KV to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Club Brugge KVDrawLens

Club Brugge KV vs Lens: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceClub Brugge KVDrawLens
Model71%17%12%
Market50%23%27%
Published56%21%23%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Club Brugge KV below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Club Brugge KV vs Lens odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Club Brugge KV, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.10Now 1.89 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Club Brugge KV2.101.89-0.21
Draw3.754.22+0.47
Lens3.173.52+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Club Brugge KV and Lens expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.63Club Brugge KV
1.04Lens
Total expected goals
3.66
Attack rating (Club Brugge KV / Lens)
1.46 / 1.15
Defence rating (Club Brugge KV / Lens)
0.69 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Club Brugge KV vs Lens score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1 6.0% 7.7% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 2 8.9% 9.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3 7.8% 8.0% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 9.6% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6%

Rows: Club Brugge KV goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Club Brugge KV vs Lens goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Club Brugge KV vs Lens

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Club Brugge KV56%1.80
Draw21%4.71
Lens23%4.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.44
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.54
Double chance1X (Club Brugge KV or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Lens)44%2.25
Handicap -1Club Brugge KV win by 2+50%1.99
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Club Brugge KV and Lens recent form

Club Brugge KV 5W 0D 1L
Lens 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Club Brugge KV at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Lens away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Club Brugge KV at home only, Lens away only.

Injuries & availability

Club Brugge KV absences

  • J. Ordonez foot injury

Lens absences

  • A. Sima muscle injury
  • I. Ganiou knee injury
  • I. Jourdren off the roster
  • J. Gradit muscle injury
  • M. Diarra off the roster
  • M. Nawrocki knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Club Brugge KV lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Y. Sommer
  2. 65 J. Seys
  3. 44 B. Mechele
  4. 58 J. Spileers
  5. 64 K. Sabbe
  6. 20 H. Vanaken
  7. 8 F. Potts
  8. 11 Jan Virgili
  9. 80 F. Lemaréchal
  10. 9 Carlos Forbs
  11. 7 N. Tresoldi

Bench: Lee Han-Beom, H. Vetlesen, C. Tsawa, R. Vermant, N. Jackers, M. Dams, M. Robberechts, H. Siquet, M. Diakhon, A. Vasovic, Argus Vanden Driessche, T. N. Koren

Lens lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 40 R. Risser
  2. 14 M. Udol
  3. 6 S. Baidoo
  4. 2 R. Aguilar
  5. 22 M. Skóraś
  6. 21 A. Haidara
  7. 27 M. Cuisance
  8. 23 Saud Abdulhamid
  9. 28 J. Kadile
  10. 9 T. Hazard
  11. 29 F. Ivanović

Bench: R. Gurtner, N. Čelik, A. Bulatović, F. Sotoca, Y. Titraoui, F. Thauvin, O. Édouard, M. Gorgelin, J. Todibo, S. Sagnan, K. Antonio, M. Soares

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match