Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris

· Amex Stadium, Brighton· Referee M. Redder

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Brighton to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrightonDrawKauno Žalgiris

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrightonDrawKauno Žalgiris
Model45%25%30%
Market94%5%2%
Published81%10%9%
Edge-12%+5%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.43.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.03Now 1.02 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brighton1.031.02-0.01
Draw15.0021.00+6.00
Kauno Žalgiris41.0051.00+10.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.79Brighton
1.43Kauno Žalgiris
Total expected goals
3.22
Attack rating (Brighton / Kauno Žalgiris)
1.43 / 1.23
Defence rating (Brighton / Kauno Žalgiris)
0.97 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 1.9% 0.9% 1 6.2% 11.3% 7.3% 3.5% 1.7% 2 6.4% 9.2% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5% 3 3.8% 5.5% 3.9% 1.9% 0.9% 4+ 2.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brighton81%1.23
Draw10%10.35
Kauno Žalgiris9%11.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.66
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.80
Double chance1X (Brighton or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)90%1.11
X2 (draw or Kauno Žalgiris)19%5.41
Handicap -1Brighton win by 2+25%4.00
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris recent form

Brighton 4W 1D 1L
Kauno Žalgiris 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brighton at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Brighton at home only, Kauno Žalgiris away only.

Expected lineups

Brighton lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Bart Verbruggen
  2. 21 Olivier Boscagli
  3. 5 Lewis Dunk
  4. 30 Michael Svoboda
  5. 20 Costinha
  6. 33 Matt O'Riley
  7. 8 Jack Hinshelwood
  8. 13 Pascal Groß
  9. 35 Malick Yalcouyé
  10. 10 Georginio Rutter
  11. 15 Ibrahim Osman

Bench: Promise David, Chema Andrés, Charalampos Kostoulas, Jason Steele, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Diego Gómez, Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper, Tom McGill, Luka Vušković, Shane Nti, Younes Ibrahim

Kauno Žalgiris lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 55 Tomas Švedkauskas
  2. 37 Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor
  3. 23 Aldayr Hernández
  4. 3 Anton Tolordava
  5. 45 Joris Moutachy
  6. 32 Franco Baldassarra
  7. 15 Léo Ribeiro
  8. 8 Yukiyoshi Karashima
  9. 7 Amine Benchaib
  10. 70 Fabien Ourega
  11. 19 Renan Oliveira

Bench: Leon Kreković, Gratas Sirgėdas, Vykintas Slivka, Ivan Fiolić, Anthony Kalik, Deividas Mikelionis, Motiejus Burba, Gabriel Debeljuh, Marko Konatar, Lirim Kastrati, Rokas Lekiatas

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match