Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Gent vs Aarhus

· Planet Group Arena, Gent· Referee B. Sariev

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Gent to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GentDrawAarhus

Gent vs Aarhus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGentDrawAarhus
Model66%21%12%
Market58%23%19%
Published60%23%17%
Edge+2%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Gent below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gent vs Aarhus odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gent, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.62Now 1.63 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gent1.621.63+0.01
Draw3.994.05+0.06
Aarhus4.975.00+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gent and Aarhus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.12Gent
0.82Aarhus
Total expected goals
2.94
Attack rating (Gent / Aarhus)
1.10 / 1.27
Defence rating (Gent / Aarhus)
0.54 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gent vs Aarhus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 3.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 10.3% 10.1% 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 2 11.9% 9.7% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.4% 6.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 7.3% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Gent goals. Columns: Aarhus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gent vs Aarhus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gent vs Aarhus

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gent60%1.67
Draw23%4.39
Aarhus17%5.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.29
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (Gent or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Aarhus)40%2.50
Handicap -1Gent win by 2+43%2.32
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gent and Aarhus recent form

Gent 5W 1D 0L
Aarhus 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gent at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gent at home only, Aarhus away only.

Expected lineups

Gent lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 33 Davy Roef
  2. 20 Tiago Araújo
  3. 44 Siebe Van der Heyden
  4. 16 Christian Burgess
  5. 3 Maksim Paskotsi
  6. 27 Tibe De Vlieger
  7. 17 Mathias Delorge
  8. 57 Matties Volckaert
  9. 11 Momodou Sonko
  10. 75 Ibrahima Cisse
  11. 7 Michel Ange Balikwisha

Bench: László Bénes, Aimé Omgba, Kyrell Wilson, Matisse Samoise, Leonardo Lopes, Mohammed El Âdfaoui, Kjell Peersman, Abdelkahar Kadri, Abdul Ayinde, Hyllarion Goore, Mamadou Diallo, El Hadji Seck

Aarhus lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 21 Mads Hedenstad
  2. 19 Eric Kahl
  3. 3 Daníel Grétarsson
  4. 25 Colin Rösler
  5. 23 Mikael Anderson
  6. 10 Kristian Arnstad
  7. 7 Markus Solbakken
  8. 26 Jacob Andersen
  9. 18 Callum McCowatt
  10. 28 James Bogere
  11. 27 Stefen Tchamche

Bench: Jesper Hansen, Magnus Knudsen, Frederik Tingager, Sebastian Jørgensen, Janni Serra, Tobias Mølgaard, Jens Jønsson, Rasmus Carstensen, Tobias Bech, Luka Callø, Frederik Emmery, Marius van der Raad

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match