Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

· Stadion Poljud, Split· Referee P. Ciochirca

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Ajax to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HNK Hajduk SplitDrawAjax

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHNK Hajduk SplitDrawAjax
Model50%21%29%
Market20%22%58%
Published28%22%51%
Edge+8%0%-7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.44Now 1.62 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
HNK Hajduk Split6.334.70-1.62
Draw4.584.27-0.31
Ajax1.441.62+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36HNK Hajduk Split
1.80Ajax
Total expected goals
4.16
Attack rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Ajax)
1.40 / 1.83
Defence rating (HNK Hajduk Split / Ajax)
0.83 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1 3.0% 7.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.4% 2 4.4% 7.8% 7.0% 4.2% 2.8% 3 3.4% 6.2% 5.5% 3.3% 2.2% 4+ 3.5% 6.4% 5.7% 3.4% 2.3%

Rows: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 60%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2HNK Hajduk Split28%3.63
Draw22%4.60
Ajax51%1.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.63
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.31
No24%4.20
Double chance1X (HNK Hajduk Split or draw)49%2.03
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Ajax)72%1.38
Handicap -1Ajax win by 2+15%6.79
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax recent form

HNK Hajduk Split 5W 0D 1L
Ajax 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

HNK Hajduk Split at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Ajax away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
3.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 3.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Hajduk Split at home only, Ajax away only.

Expected lineups

HNK Hajduk Split lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 33 Toni Silić
  2. 32 Šimun Hrgović
  3. 15 Dario Marešić
  4. 6 Dennis Hadžikadunić
  5. 22 Mathieu Acapandié
  6. 20 Alberto del Moral
  7. 8 Khalil Fayad
  8. 23 Marin Šotiček
  9. 9 Dalisson de Almeida
  10. 7 Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba
  11. 11 Michele Šego

Bench: Roko Gabrić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Marko Livaja, Ron Raçi, Anđelo Šutalo, Dario Melnjak, Leander Dendoncker, Adam Huram, Luka Hodak, Dante Stipica, Carlos Martín, Davyd Fesyuk

Ajax lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen
  2. 21 Jofre Torrents
  3. 15 Youri Baas
  4. 30 Aaron Bouwman
  5. 6 Thilo Kehrer
  6. 8 Julian Brandt
  7. 4 Sofyan Amrabat
  8. 18 Davy Klaassen
  9. 68 Abdellah Ouazane
  10. 99 Tolu Arokodare
  11. 11 Viktor Tsygankov

Bench: Lucas Rosa, Owen Wijndal, Oscar Gloukh, Oliver Valaker Edvardsen, Jorthy Mokio, Maarten Paes, Dies Janse, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida, Aymean el Hani, Mohamed Abdalla

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match