Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

· National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia· Referee J. Goncalves

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Monaco to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CSKA SofiaDrawMonaco

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCSKA SofiaDrawMonaco
Model63%21%16%
Market16%21%63%
Published28%21%52%
Edge+12%0%-12%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.48Now 1.50 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
CSKA Sofia5.886.00+0.12
Draw4.434.58+0.15
Monaco1.481.50+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CSKA Sofia and Monaco expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.30CSKA Sofia
1.11Monaco
Total expected goals
3.41
Attack rating (CSKA Sofia / Monaco)
1.36 / 1.08
Defence rating (CSKA Sofia / Monaco)
0.87 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 2.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.7% 9.3% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2 8.7% 9.7% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 6.7% 7.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 4+ 6.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5%

Rows: CSKA Sofia goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CSKA Sofia vs Monaco goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CSKA Sofia vs Monaco

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CSKA Sofia28%3.62
Draw21%4.82
Monaco52%1.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.97
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (CSKA Sofia or draw)48%2.07
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Monaco)72%1.38
Handicap -1Monaco win by 2+6%15.93
Push (exactly one goal)10%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CSKA Sofia and Monaco recent form

CSKA Sofia 4W 2D 0L
Monaco 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Monaco away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA Sofia at home only, Monaco away only.

Expected lineups

CSKA Sofia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 21 Fedor Lapoukhov
  2. 17 Ángelo Martino
  3. 32 Facundo Rodríguez
  4. 4 Dinis Almeida
  5. 2 Pastor
  6. 8 Stefano Sensi
  7. 7 Max Ebong
  8. 6 Bruno Jordão
  9. 38 Léo Pereira
  10. 28 Ioannis Pittas
  11. 9 Leandro Godoy

Bench: Joël Zwarts, Teodor Ivanov, Andrey Yordanov, Dimitar Evtimov, Petko Panayotov, Daniel Nikolov, Vasil Kaymakanov, Cătălin Itu, Aleks Tunchev, Isaac Solet, James Eto'o

Monaco lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Lukáš Hrádecký
  2. 13 Christian Mawissa
  3. 22 Mohammed Salisu
  4. 72 Sadibou Sané
  5. 4 Jordan Teze
  6. 17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo
  7. 8 Lamine Camara
  8. 31 Ansu Fati
  9. 18 Takumi Minamino
  10. 37 Edan Diop
  11. 29 Paris Brunner

Bench: Vanderson, Denis Zakaria, Mathys Detourbet, Aleksandr Golovin, Matthis Abline, Mika Biereth, Philipp Köhn, Pape Cabral, Nazinho, Mamadou Coulibaly, Anis Soubeir, Ilane Touré

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match