Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad

· Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley· Referee Goga Kikacheishvili

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Union St. Gilloise to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union St. GilloiseDrawReal Sociedad

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion St. GilloiseDrawReal Sociedad
Model86%10%5%
Market38%26%36%
Published50%22%28%
Edge+12%-4%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.50 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +11.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.29Now 2.50 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union St. Gilloise2.292.50+0.20
Draw3.543.69+0.15
Real Sociedad2.922.63-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.50Union St. Gilloise
0.83Real Sociedad
Total expected goals
4.33
Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Real Sociedad)
1.68 / 0.99
Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Real Sociedad)
0.73 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1 4.2% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2 8.1% 6.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 3 9.4% 7.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 20.2% 16.7% 6.9% 1.9% 0.5%

Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 63%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union St. Gilloise50%2.00
Draw22%4.59
Real Sociedad28%3.54
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.24
Under 2.519%5.16
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.22
Double chance1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)50%2.00
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win by 2+70%1.42
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad recent form

Union St. Gilloise 5W 1D 0L
Real Sociedad 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Union St. Gilloise absences

  • A. Ait El Hadj off the roster
  • A. Zorgane suspended
  • I. Hurtevent knock
  • I. Pavlic off the roster
  • K. Mac Allister knee injury
  • K. Rodriguez muscle injury
  • O. Kricfalusi knock
  • R. Florucz suspended
  • R. Schoofs knock
  • R. Sykes shoulder injury

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • J. Aramburu muscle injury
  • L. Beitia ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Union St. Gilloise lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 12 H. Koffi
  2. 4 N. Chibani
  3. 29 M. Sylla
  4. 55 N. Havenaar
  5. 6 K. Van de Perre
  6. 11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
  7. 28 D. Olaru
  8. 23 B. Zeneli
  9. 27 L. Patris
  10. 38 R. Mofokeng
  11. 9 M. Biondic

Bench: V. Chambaere, G. Kavelashvili, D. Aquino, D. De Roeve, S. Keita

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 Unai Marrero
  2. 17 Sergio Gómez
  3. 6 Jon Martín
  4. 19 M. Sarr
  5. 5 Zubeldia
  6. 11 Gonçalo Guedes
  7. 21 Y. Herrera
  8. 4 Jon Gorrotxategi
  9. 12 J. Ochieng
  10. 24 L. Sučić
  11. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Bench: Álex Remiro, Aihen Muñoz, Barrenetxea, Beñat Turrientes, O. Óskarsson, T. Kubo, Pablo Marín, Jon Pacheco, Carlos Soler, Héctor Fort, A. Zakharyan, Alex Garcia

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