Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lech Poznan	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
Model	53%	20%	27%
Market	18%	20%	61%
Published	27%	20%	53%
Edge	+9%	0%	-9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.66Now 1.56 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lech Poznan	4.50	5.21	+0.71
Draw	4.28	4.65	+0.38
Bayer Leverkusen	1.66	1.56	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.58Lech Poznan

1.85Bayer Leverkusen

Total expected goals: 4.43
Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Bayer Leverkusen): 1.69 / 1.67
Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Bayer Leverkusen): 0.97 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 1 2.5% 6.2% 5.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2 3.9% 7.3% 6.8% 4.2% 3.0% 3 3.4% 6.3% 5.8% 3.6% 2.6% 4+ 4.1% 7.5% 7.0% 4.3% 3.1%

Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 82%

Over 3.5 65%

Both teams to score: 79%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lech Poznan	27%	3.70
	Draw	20%	4.93
	Bayer Leverkusen	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	1.22
	Under 2.5	18%	5.52
Both teams to score	Yes	79%	1.27
	No	21%	4.66
Double chance	1X (Lech Poznan or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+	14%	7.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	13%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

Lech Poznan 4W 0D 2L

Bayer Leverkusen 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lech Poznan at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 4.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 2

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.