Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Lyon vs Crystal Palace

· Groupama Stadium, Lyon· Referee Joao Pinheiro

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Lyon to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LyonDrawCrystal Palace

Why this pick: Lyon vs Crystal Palace

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LyonCrystal Palace
1.82 xG per 90 1.58
1.73 npxG per 90 1.49
11.5 PPDA 18.2
9.3 Deep completions per 90 6.1
1.62 xPTS per 90 0.96

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLyonDrawCrystal Palace
Model58%21%21%
Market40%26%34%
Published44%25%31%
Edge+5%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.42.
  • The market prices Lyon below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.18Now 2.39 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lyon2.182.39+0.21
Draw3.623.66+0.04
Crystal Palace3.052.80-0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lyon and Crystal Palace expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Lyon
1.42Crystal Palace
Total expected goals
3.81
Attack rating (Lyon / Crystal Palace)
1.25 / 1.32
Defence rating (Lyon / Crystal Palace)
0.94 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.5% 1 4.6% 8.3% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 2 6.3% 9.0% 6.4% 3.0% 1.5% 3 5.0% 7.2% 5.1% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 5.3% 7.5% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2%

Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lyon vs Crystal Palace goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lyon vs Crystal Palace

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lyon44%2.25
Draw25%4.05
Crystal Palace31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.37
Under 2.527%3.73
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.44
No30%3.29
Double chance1X (Lyon or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Crystal Palace)56%1.80
Handicap -1Lyon win by 2+38%2.64
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lyon and Crystal Palace recent form

Lyon 3W 2D 1L
Crystal Palace 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Lyon absences

  • L. Openda leg injury
  • M. Ouedraogo knee injury
  • N. Tagliafico knee injury

Crystal Palace absences

  • B. Chilwell inactive
  • C. Doucoure off the roster
  • C. Riad knee injury
  • D. Henderson foot injury
  • E. Guessand off the roster
  • J. Lerma off the roster
  • J. Mateta hamstring injury
  • T. Tomiyasu calf injury
  • Z. Gozo off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Lyon lineup · 4-1-2-1-2

  1. 1 D. Greif
  2. 16 Abner
  3. 21 R. Kluivert
  4. 20 F. Bacher
  5. 13 Z. Athekame
  6. 23 T. Morton
  7. 8 C. Tolisso
  8. 99 N. Nartey
  9. 18 K. Merah
  10. 11 Keito Nakamura
  11. 7 E. Nuamah

Bench: M. Bidstrup, T. Tessmann, P. Šulc, M. Niakhaté, Clinton Mata, J. Duranville, J. Bengui João, K. Boudache, Steeve Kango, R. Descamps, R. Himbert, N. Kamara

Crystal Palace lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 44 W. Benítez
  2. 6 J. Canvot
  3. 5 A. Disasi
  4. 26 C. Richards
  5. 3 T. Mitchell
  6. 20 A. Wharton
  7. 23 Q. Timber
  8. 30 Óscar Mingueza
  9. 10 Yeremy Pino
  10. 7 I. Sarr
  11. 22 J. Strand Larsen

Bench: E. Nketiah, D. McNeil, D. Kamada, W. Hughes, H. Ahanor, D. Osorio, A. Khalaili, R. Matthews, D. Benamar

Lyon vs Crystal Palace head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Lyon 0 · draws 0 · Crystal Palace 1.

LyonDrawsCrystal Palace
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-08-05Crystal Palace2-0LyonFriendlies Clubs

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match