AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Hapoel Beer Sheva
Model	50%	26%	24%
Market	71%	17%	12%
Published	66%	19%	15%
Edge	-5%	+2%	+3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.29Now 1.33 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AZ Alkmaar	1.29	1.33	+0.04
Draw	5.67	5.53	-0.14
Hapoel Beer Sheva	9.50	8.08	-1.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77AZ Alkmaar

1.17Hapoel Beer Sheva

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (AZ Alkmaar / Hapoel Beer Sheva): 1.25 / 1.13
Defence rating (AZ Alkmaar / Hapoel Beer Sheva): 0.91 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 5.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.3% 12.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.7% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.9% 5.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.2% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: AZ Alkmaar goals. Columns: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AZ Alkmaar	66%	1.52
	Draw	19%	5.19
	Hapoel Beer Sheva	15%	6.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.71
	No	42%	2.40
Double chance	1X (AZ Alkmaar or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva)	34%	2.93
Handicap -1	AZ Alkmaar win by 2+	28%	3.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—