Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom: Prediction vs Result 15.10.26

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sparta Praha	Draw	Lillestrom
Model	67%	19%	15%
Market	72%	17%	11%
Published	70%	18%	12%
Edge	-1%	0%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.15.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sparta Praha, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.35Now 1.33 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sparta Praha	1.35	1.33	-0.02
Draw	5.05	5.50	+0.45
Lillestrom	7.66	8.50	+0.84

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sparta Praha and Lillestrom expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.53Sparta Praha

1.15Lillestrom

Total expected goals: 3.67
Attack rating (Sparta Praha / Lillestrom): 1.44 / 1.21
Defence rating (Sparta Praha / Lillestrom): 0.83 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1 5.7% 8.1% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 2 8.1% 9.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 6.8% 7.8% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 7.9% 9.0% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7%

Rows: Sparta Praha goals. Columns: Lillestrom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 50%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sparta Praha	70%	1.42
	Draw	18%	5.66
	Lillestrom	12%	8.30
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.41
	Under 2.5	29%	3.44
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.58
	No	37%	2.74
Double chance	1X (Sparta Praha or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	82%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Lillestrom)	30%	3.37
Handicap -1	Sparta Praha win by 2+	46%	2.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—