Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

· Stadion Z’dežele, Celje· Referee Elcin Masiyev

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Omonia Nicosia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CeljeDrawOmonia Nicosia

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCeljeDrawOmonia Nicosia
Model18%31%51%
Market34%28%37%
Published30%29%41%
Edge-4%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.68.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Omonia Nicosia below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Omonia Nicosia, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.78Now 2.55 -0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celje2.422.78+0.37
Draw3.443.34-0.10
Omonia Nicosia2.782.55-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celje and Omonia Nicosia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.68Celje
1.33Omonia Nicosia
Total expected goals
2.01
Attack rating (Celje / Omonia Nicosia)
0.76 / 1.35
Defence rating (Celje / Omonia Nicosia)
0.86 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 16.7% 11.9% 5.3% 2.3% 1 7.9% 13.3% 8.0% 3.6% 1.6% 2 3.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 3 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Omonia Nicosia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celje30%3.32
Draw29%3.44
Omonia Nicosia41%2.45
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.08
Under 2.568%1.48
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.67
No63%1.60
Double chance1X (Celje or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Omonia Nicosia)70%1.43
Handicap -1Omonia Nicosia win by 2+25%3.97
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celje and Omonia Nicosia recent form

Celje 2W 1D 3L
Omonia Nicosia 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Omonia Nicosia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celje at home only, Omonia Nicosia away only.

Injuries & availability

Celje absences

  • J. Pisek knee injury

Omonia Nicosia absences

  • A. Christou inactive
  • C. Eiting knee injury
  • F. Kitsos knee injury
  • L. Brouwers inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Celje lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Žan-Luk Leban
  2. 11 M. Avdyli
  3. 6 A. Tutyškinas
  4. 15 Ž. Žužek
  5. 44 Ł. Bejger
  6. 19 M. Zabukovnik
  7. 13 Papa Mustapha Daniel
  8. 14 L. Tičić
  9. 10 S. Sešlar
  10. 9 B. Kramer
  11. 91 Y. Dukuly

Bench: D. Hrka, B. Verbič, M. Kvesić, L. Kolar, A. Dionkou, Ž. Frelih, V. Tusha, D. Suhovrsnik, L. Koútris, A. Kučys, M. Ivanšek

Omonia Nicosia lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 40 Fabiano
  2. 29 J. Balkovec
  3. 37 Ľ. Šatka
  4. 5 S. Coulibaly
  5. 93 J. Duverne
  6. 14 M. Marić
  7. 22 M. Tankovic
  8. 74 P. Andreou
  9. 7 J. Montnor
  10. 99 L. Diony
  11. 11 Ewandro

Bench: T. Kaminski, A. Kakoullis, F. Tănase, L. Brouwers, M. Mayambela, S. Simič, L. Négo, A. Neophytou, C. Konstantinidis, C. Panagiotis

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match